SPX (S & P 500) Had Very Brief Strength Followed By A Downtrend
So did HUI, NEM (in SPX), and the XAU:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,m26-12-9,p12,m26-12-9,p12,fs,m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=%5Ehui,nem,%5EGSPC
Very modest % moves in SPX cause rapid significant moves in NEM and other gold/silver stocks in the many indices affected by SPX. Because SPX is probably about to enter the parabolic part of it's monthly downcycle after being very flat, actually rising during much of the gold/silver stock strength in the short term and the minor int term upcycles, SPX should bring an end to the minor int term upcycle since 10-20 for HUI/XAU. It may have ended just after today's open.
The NEM Lead Indicator is bearish right now at about -0.50% after being very bullish yesterday at +1.04% vs the XAU. Keep in mind that indicators portend more strength in short term upcycles versus downcycles and of course the monthly cycle has probably turned down or at least rolled over dramatically, so less strength is likely in a monthly downcycle than a monthly upcycle, which is another consideration.
XAU Implied Volatility rose +0.74% to 30.705 on Wednesday 12-28 from 30.480 on 12-27 versus a +2.47% rise in the XAU on 12-28, which is a very sharp (3-6%) 3.21% rise in fear (+0.74% + +2.47% = +3.21%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +3.21%, therefore fear rose by +3.21%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 12-29's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell a sharp (2-2.99%) 2.84% today to 1.04425 from 1.07476 on 12-28 which portends some weakness today.
The latest COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is bearish, with the non contrarian gold Commercial Traders (data as of 12-20-05) engaging in aggressive long liquidation (sold a large 8157 long futures/options contracts) and doing significant short selling (shorted 4202 futures/options contracts). Ciao
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,m26-12-9,p12,m26-12-9,p12,fs,m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=%5Ehui,nem,%5EGSPC
Very modest % moves in SPX cause rapid significant moves in NEM and other gold/silver stocks in the many indices affected by SPX. Because SPX is probably about to enter the parabolic part of it's monthly downcycle after being very flat, actually rising during much of the gold/silver stock strength in the short term and the minor int term upcycles, SPX should bring an end to the minor int term upcycle since 10-20 for HUI/XAU. It may have ended just after today's open.
The NEM Lead Indicator is bearish right now at about -0.50% after being very bullish yesterday at +1.04% vs the XAU. Keep in mind that indicators portend more strength in short term upcycles versus downcycles and of course the monthly cycle has probably turned down or at least rolled over dramatically, so less strength is likely in a monthly downcycle than a monthly upcycle, which is another consideration.
XAU Implied Volatility rose +0.74% to 30.705 on Wednesday 12-28 from 30.480 on 12-27 versus a +2.47% rise in the XAU on 12-28, which is a very sharp (3-6%) 3.21% rise in fear (+0.74% + +2.47% = +3.21%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +3.21%, therefore fear rose by +3.21%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 12-29's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell a sharp (2-2.99%) 2.84% today to 1.04425 from 1.07476 on 12-28 which portends some weakness today.
The latest COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is bearish, with the non contrarian gold Commercial Traders (data as of 12-20-05) engaging in aggressive long liquidation (sold a large 8157 long futures/options contracts) and doing significant short selling (shorted 4202 futures/options contracts). Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:52 AM
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