An SPX Short Term Wave 2 Cycle High Appears To Have Occurred Today
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 2 Cycle High (began 11-2-09) appears to have occurred today 11-4-09, see the bearish spike on a dark candle today at http://bit.ly/2R7nuf.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) did a down up down up down pattern/Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle on the daily candlestick chart from 10-21-09's 1101.36 cycle high to 11-2-09's 1029.38 cycle low, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
Watch SPX's downside gaps at 1025.21/1016.40 tomorrow/on Thursday, see the five day chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN. SPX created an upside bearish breakaway gap at 1066.11 at Friday 10-30-09's open.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is probably heading down, in a very large Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle, that began shortly after today's Fed announcement. The Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle from 10-21-09 until 11-2-09 was large, so, Wave 3 Down should be much larger, since Wave 3s tend to be much larger than Wave 1s, in terms of both time and price, with a 935 target (940.38 downside gap), which would be a 38.2% retracement of the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09.
The countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Elliott Wave 12345 Upcycle since 11-2-09 peaked rolling over dramatically today, with a bearish intraday double top at 2:37ish pm EST, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a bearish spike on the daily white candle today 11-4-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) appeared to be in a Wave 4 up move of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle, that began after today's Fed announcement, see http://bit.ly/y3mKo, which points to early (probably brief very early strength only) SPX/market strength. Also, Cisco (CSCO) is up big after hours, after quarterly revenue rose more than expected from the previous quarter.
VIX closed down -3.78% vs SPX up +0.10% today 11-4-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Thursday.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose substantially LATE today, which is a bullish indication for early Thursday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The market had mixed/neutral breadth today 11-4-09 (NYSE up to down volume appears to be correct today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a bearish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks/months) indication for early Thursday 11-5.
One can see in the volume bars at the bottom of the daily chart that SPX volume had been spiking well above the 4.382 billion share EMA (60 day) until 11-2-09 (4.851 billion shares on 11-2-09), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which correctly was a sign of an imminent/approaching Short Term Wave 1 Cycle (since 10-21-09) Low, that occurred on 11-2-09. It's very important to watch volume, since volume spikes tend to/almost always confirm price spikes (cycle highs/lows).
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$17.385 Billion in the 5 day period ending 10-28-09, which is/correctly was a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) definitely looks like it peaked and put in a major cycle high on 10-21-09, even more than SPX does, see http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled downside gaps at 1042.63 and 1040.46 as expected on Friday, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN, and, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5. Now watch downside gaps at 1025.21 and 1016.40, with more at 975.15, 940.38, and 905.84.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) should fill the downside gap at 905.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) should fill the downside gap at 1452.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in another bearish spike/dark candle on 10-26-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. 10-28-09's candle is a bearish tall dark candle with a tiny spike.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in a bearish triple top the past few weeks, see http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
VIX rose dramatically in four of the past nine days (+23.95% on Friday 10-30-09, +12.04% on 10-28-09, +2.59% on 10-27-09, +9.16% on 10-26-09, +7.64% on Friday 10-23-09), which is a very bearish rapid enormous/unusually large rise in fear, that jives with 10-21-09 probably being an SPX major cycle high (upcycle since 3-6-09); cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations.
Fed Credit spiked a massive +$65.101 Billion in the five day period ending 10-21-09, thanks to a massive $63.970 Billion purchase of Mortgage-backed securities, which would have been a very bullish indication IN AN IMPORTANT UPCYCLE (explains the modest daily securities lending (very light today 11-4-09), see the Fed's daily securities lending at http://bit.ly/9lBIG), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since 10-2-09 peaked on 10-21-09, after rolling over dramatically, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN, and, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5. 10-21-09's spike is larger/more bearish than the spike that occurred on 9-23-09.
If SPX put in a major cycle high on 10-21-09 (likely), for the Fibonacci Wave 1 Downcycle target (935 (940.38 downside gap), probably will be Wave 3 Down of the Wave 1 Monthly Downcycle since 10-21-09, with Wave 5 Down probably filling the 905.84 downside gap) see the Blog post at http://bit.ly/gGso1.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major upcycle since 3-6-09 (is probably the countertrend Wave B and Wave 4 Major Upcycle, of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/18T7lw) appears to have peaked on 10-21-09, see SPX's daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The broad market Russell 2000's (RUT) major upcycle since March appears to have peaked on 9-23-09 (quintuple top, with 9-23-09 being the highest cycle high), see http://bit.ly/3QyXeD.
The DJ Real Estate Index appears to have peaked on 9-17-09, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) put in a bearish candle on 10-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The newest SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) chart with the Elliott Wave count suggests that the Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking/peaked, see chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is dominated by a relatively small number of large cap stocks (see the post from 10-20 at http://bit.ly/MvspO), that have benefited from program trading by the big boys, with a major assist from the Fed's massive credit. So, SPX doesn't really provide a good picture of the broad market.
VIX fell -3.78% today vs SPX rising +0.10%, which is a bearish very sharp -3.68% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry/+3.68% rise in complacency today 11-4-09, which points to early significant/potentially severe weakness on Thursday.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose substantially late today, which is a bullish indication for early Thursday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
Take a look at the bearish rapid unusually large/enormous rise in fear/VIX that occurred until 11-2-09, revealed in the five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) chart, which correctly pointed to some potentially severe weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. The dramatic collapse of the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) since late 11-2-09 points to severe SPX/market weakness, which began late today.
Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at/near very bullish today (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at a bullish +0.86% vs SPX today 11-4-09.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is ULTRA scary bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator; the huge rise in fear that occurred until 11-2-09 is a very bearish sign also, which indicates that 10-21-09's 1101.36 SPX cycle high is probably a major cycle high), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
"On An Inflation-Adjusted Basis SPX Has Been In A Secular Bear Market Since March 2000, " see http://bit.ly/JKhdZ.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 950 to 975, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, not indicators, COT data, etc. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Candlestick charts are instrumental in helping to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc soon.
Fed Credit spiked a massive +$65.101 Billion in the five day period ending 10-21-09, thanks to a massive $63.970 Billion purchase of Mortgage-backed securities, which is a very bullish indication (explains the modest daily securities lending), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit contracted for a third consecutive week, it fell a substantial -$12.882 Billion in the five day period ending 10-14-09, which is a clearly bearish indication (the past three weeks combined is obviously a bearish indication), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
The weekly Fed Credit data is slightly bearish (the past two weeks combined is obviously a bearish indication), since it fell -$652 Million in the five day period ending 10-7-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
The weekly Fed Credit data was bearish last week, since it fell -$12.435 Billion in the five day period ending 9-30-09.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Major Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +0.86% versus the S & P 500 today/on 11-4, -1.00% on 11-3, +0.56% on 11-2, +1.38% on 10-30, -1.25% on 10-29, +2.01% on 10-28, +0.39% on 10-27, -0.02% on 10-26, +1.14% on 10-23, -1.36% on 10-22, -1.18% on 10-21, +0.25% on 10-20, +0.37% on 10-19, +1.34% on 10-16, +1.09% on 10-15, -2.05% on 10-14, +1.75% on 10-13, -1.16% on 10-12, -0.10% on 10-9, -0.24% on 10-8, -0.25% on 10-7, -0.51% on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was -0.92% versus the XOI today/on 11-4, -1.69% on 11-3, +0.17% on 11-2, +0.27% on 10-30, -2.13% on 10-29, +1.26% on 10-28, +1.54% on 10-27, +1.00% on 10-26, +0.49% on 10-23, +0.55% on 10-22, +0.34% on 10-21, -0.17% on 10-20, -0.40% on 10-19, +0.05% on 10-16, +0.11% on 10-15, +0.36% on 10-14, -0.03% on 10-13, +0.25% on 10-12, +0.26% on 10-9, -1.39% on 10-8, -0.13% on 10-7, -0.69% on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70 (filled), 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 51.55 (filled), 51.22 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 50.19 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.68 (filled), 49.61 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1096.56 (filled), 1076.19 (filled), 1068.30 (filled), 1066.11, 1063.41 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1073.19 (filled), 1071.49 (filled), 1064.66 (filled), 1057.58 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1042.63 (filled), 1040.46 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking or peaked in rollover mode, versus the 6-1-09 and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU (IF YOU SEE THE SECOND weekly chart, GDX/HUI/XAU appear to have peaked on 10-15-09 or 10-16-09, depending on which index one looks at) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is/was peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +1.12% versus the XAU today/on 11-4, +0.30% on 11-3, -0.78% on 11-2, +4.40% on 10-30, -0.99% on 10-29, +0.98% on 10-28, +1.21% on 10-27, +0.35% on 10-26, -0.17% on 10-23, +0.02% on 10-22, -0.97% on 10-21, +0.06% on 10-20, -0.17% on 10-19, -0.33% on 10-16, +0.16% on 10-15, -0.67% on 10-14, +0.76% on 10-13, +0.14% on 10-12, -0.61% on 10-9, -0.46% on 10-8, -0.70% on 10-7, +0.85% on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at extremely bullish (+2.00%+ to +3.99% vs XAU) today 11-4-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau, which is typically a very short term bearish indication.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at/near very bullish (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX) today 11-4-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 46.85 (filled), 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56 (filled), 43.04 (filled), 42.76 (filled), 42.48 (filled), 41.87 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
NEM has downside gaps at 46.73 (filled), 46.48 (on 11-4-09, same as previous), 46.48 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20 (filled), 42.12 (filled), 41.50, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.13, 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 44.47 (filled), 43.80 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44 (filled), 47.35 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 40 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) did a down up down up down pattern/Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle on the daily candlestick chart from 10-21-09's 1101.36 cycle high to 11-2-09's 1029.38 cycle low, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
Watch SPX's downside gaps at 1025.21/1016.40 tomorrow/on Thursday, see the five day chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN. SPX created an upside bearish breakaway gap at 1066.11 at Friday 10-30-09's open.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is probably heading down, in a very large Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle, that began shortly after today's Fed announcement. The Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle from 10-21-09 until 11-2-09 was large, so, Wave 3 Down should be much larger, since Wave 3s tend to be much larger than Wave 1s, in terms of both time and price, with a 935 target (940.38 downside gap), which would be a 38.2% retracement of the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09.
The countertrend Short Term Wave 2 Elliott Wave 12345 Upcycle since 11-2-09 peaked rolling over dramatically today, with a bearish intraday double top at 2:37ish pm EST, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a bearish spike on the daily white candle today 11-4-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) appeared to be in a Wave 4 up move of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle, that began after today's Fed announcement, see http://bit.ly/y3mKo, which points to early (probably brief very early strength only) SPX/market strength. Also, Cisco (CSCO) is up big after hours, after quarterly revenue rose more than expected from the previous quarter.
VIX closed down -3.78% vs SPX up +0.10% today 11-4-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Thursday.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose substantially LATE today, which is a bullish indication for early Thursday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The market had mixed/neutral breadth today 11-4-09 (NYSE up to down volume appears to be correct today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a bearish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks/months) indication for early Thursday 11-5.
One can see in the volume bars at the bottom of the daily chart that SPX volume had been spiking well above the 4.382 billion share EMA (60 day) until 11-2-09 (4.851 billion shares on 11-2-09), see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which correctly was a sign of an imminent/approaching Short Term Wave 1 Cycle (since 10-21-09) Low, that occurred on 11-2-09. It's very important to watch volume, since volume spikes tend to/almost always confirm price spikes (cycle highs/lows).
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$17.385 Billion in the 5 day period ending 10-28-09, which is/correctly was a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) definitely looks like it peaked and put in a major cycle high on 10-21-09, even more than SPX does, see http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled downside gaps at 1042.63 and 1040.46 as expected on Friday, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN, and, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5. Now watch downside gaps at 1025.21 and 1016.40, with more at 975.15, 940.38, and 905.84.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) should fill the downside gap at 905.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) should fill the downside gap at 1452.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in another bearish spike/dark candle on 10-26-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. 10-28-09's candle is a bearish tall dark candle with a tiny spike.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in a bearish triple top the past few weeks, see http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
VIX rose dramatically in four of the past nine days (+23.95% on Friday 10-30-09, +12.04% on 10-28-09, +2.59% on 10-27-09, +9.16% on 10-26-09, +7.64% on Friday 10-23-09), which is a very bearish rapid enormous/unusually large rise in fear, that jives with 10-21-09 probably being an SPX major cycle high (upcycle since 3-6-09); cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations.
Fed Credit spiked a massive +$65.101 Billion in the five day period ending 10-21-09, thanks to a massive $63.970 Billion purchase of Mortgage-backed securities, which would have been a very bullish indication IN AN IMPORTANT UPCYCLE (explains the modest daily securities lending (very light today 11-4-09), see the Fed's daily securities lending at http://bit.ly/9lBIG), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since 10-2-09 peaked on 10-21-09, after rolling over dramatically, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN, and, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5. 10-21-09's spike is larger/more bearish than the spike that occurred on 9-23-09.
If SPX put in a major cycle high on 10-21-09 (likely), for the Fibonacci Wave 1 Downcycle target (935 (940.38 downside gap), probably will be Wave 3 Down of the Wave 1 Monthly Downcycle since 10-21-09, with Wave 5 Down probably filling the 905.84 downside gap) see the Blog post at http://bit.ly/gGso1.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major upcycle since 3-6-09 (is probably the countertrend Wave B and Wave 4 Major Upcycle, of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/18T7lw) appears to have peaked on 10-21-09, see SPX's daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The broad market Russell 2000's (RUT) major upcycle since March appears to have peaked on 9-23-09 (quintuple top, with 9-23-09 being the highest cycle high), see http://bit.ly/3QyXeD.
The DJ Real Estate Index appears to have peaked on 9-17-09, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) put in a bearish candle on 10-21-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The newest SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) chart with the Elliott Wave count suggests that the Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking/peaked, see chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is dominated by a relatively small number of large cap stocks (see the post from 10-20 at http://bit.ly/MvspO), that have benefited from program trading by the big boys, with a major assist from the Fed's massive credit. So, SPX doesn't really provide a good picture of the broad market.
VIX fell -3.78% today vs SPX rising +0.10%, which is a bearish very sharp -3.68% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry/+3.68% rise in complacency today 11-4-09, which points to early significant/potentially severe weakness on Thursday.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose substantially late today, which is a bullish indication for early Thursday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
Take a look at the bearish rapid unusually large/enormous rise in fear/VIX that occurred until 11-2-09, revealed in the five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) chart, which correctly pointed to some potentially severe weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. The dramatic collapse of the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) since late 11-2-09 points to severe SPX/market weakness, which began late today.
Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at/near very bullish today (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at a bullish +0.86% vs SPX today 11-4-09.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is ULTRA scary bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator; the huge rise in fear that occurred until 11-2-09 is a very bearish sign also, which indicates that 10-21-09's 1101.36 SPX cycle high is probably a major cycle high), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
"On An Inflation-Adjusted Basis SPX Has Been In A Secular Bear Market Since March 2000, " see http://bit.ly/JKhdZ.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 950 to 975, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, not indicators, COT data, etc. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Candlestick charts are instrumental in helping to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc soon.
Fed Credit spiked a massive +$65.101 Billion in the five day period ending 10-21-09, thanks to a massive $63.970 Billion purchase of Mortgage-backed securities, which is a very bullish indication (explains the modest daily securities lending), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit contracted for a third consecutive week, it fell a substantial -$12.882 Billion in the five day period ending 10-14-09, which is a clearly bearish indication (the past three weeks combined is obviously a bearish indication), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
The weekly Fed Credit data is slightly bearish (the past two weeks combined is obviously a bearish indication), since it fell -$652 Million in the five day period ending 10-7-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
The weekly Fed Credit data was bearish last week, since it fell -$12.435 Billion in the five day period ending 9-30-09.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Major Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +0.86% versus the S & P 500 today/on 11-4, -1.00% on 11-3, +0.56% on 11-2, +1.38% on 10-30, -1.25% on 10-29, +2.01% on 10-28, +0.39% on 10-27, -0.02% on 10-26, +1.14% on 10-23, -1.36% on 10-22, -1.18% on 10-21, +0.25% on 10-20, +0.37% on 10-19, +1.34% on 10-16, +1.09% on 10-15, -2.05% on 10-14, +1.75% on 10-13, -1.16% on 10-12, -0.10% on 10-9, -0.24% on 10-8, -0.25% on 10-7, -0.51% on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was -0.92% versus the XOI today/on 11-4, -1.69% on 11-3, +0.17% on 11-2, +0.27% on 10-30, -2.13% on 10-29, +1.26% on 10-28, +1.54% on 10-27, +1.00% on 10-26, +0.49% on 10-23, +0.55% on 10-22, +0.34% on 10-21, -0.17% on 10-20, -0.40% on 10-19, +0.05% on 10-16, +0.11% on 10-15, +0.36% on 10-14, -0.03% on 10-13, +0.25% on 10-12, +0.26% on 10-9, -1.39% on 10-8, -0.13% on 10-7, -0.69% on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70 (filled), 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 51.55 (filled), 51.22 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 50.19 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.68 (filled), 49.61 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1096.56 (filled), 1076.19 (filled), 1068.30 (filled), 1066.11, 1063.41 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1073.19 (filled), 1071.49 (filled), 1064.66 (filled), 1057.58 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1042.63 (filled), 1040.46 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking or peaked in rollover mode, versus the 6-1-09 and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU (IF YOU SEE THE SECOND weekly chart, GDX/HUI/XAU appear to have peaked on 10-15-09 or 10-16-09, depending on which index one looks at) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is/was peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +1.12% versus the XAU today/on 11-4, +0.30% on 11-3, -0.78% on 11-2, +4.40% on 10-30, -0.99% on 10-29, +0.98% on 10-28, +1.21% on 10-27, +0.35% on 10-26, -0.17% on 10-23, +0.02% on 10-22, -0.97% on 10-21, +0.06% on 10-20, -0.17% on 10-19, -0.33% on 10-16, +0.16% on 10-15, -0.67% on 10-14, +0.76% on 10-13, +0.14% on 10-12, -0.61% on 10-9, -0.46% on 10-8, -0.70% on 10-7, +0.85% on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at extremely bullish (+2.00%+ to +3.99% vs XAU) today 11-4-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau, which is typically a very short term bearish indication.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at/near very bullish (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX) today 11-4-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 46.85 (filled), 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56 (filled), 43.04 (filled), 42.76 (filled), 42.48 (filled), 41.87 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
NEM has downside gaps at 46.73 (filled), 46.48 (on 11-4-09, same as previous), 46.48 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20 (filled), 42.12 (filled), 41.50, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.13, 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 44.47 (filled), 43.80 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44 (filled), 47.35 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 40 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:29 PM
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