The SPX Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle Since 10-2 Might Have Peaked
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle since very early Friday 10-2 might have peaked early today, see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at see http://bit.ly/nzwcN. Watch today's downside gap at 1040.46 tomorrow, with 1025.21 and 1016.40 being the next downside gaps.
Looking at SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday chart, see http://bit.ly/A9Qr5, the late session bounce appears to be a Wave 4 up move of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle, since the early session cycle high.
However, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at bullish near very bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR, but, the daily Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.51% vs SPX today 10-6-09.
Also, the market had clearly positive breadth today 10-6-09 (NYSE up to down volume appears to be correct today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a bullish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks) indication for early Wednesday 10-7.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle since 10-2 could actually be (I suspect it is/might be, due to bullish 5 day WMT Lead Indicator and bullish market breadth today) a Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle, if the decline from 9-23 to 10-2, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, was an Elliott Wave ABC down up down large Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle (that didn't also follow the usual 12345 down up down up down pattern).
Usually Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycles also have an inverse 12345 down up down up down pattern (I'd have to show a few examples, maybe I'll do a post about that), this one, the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) decline from 9-23 to 10-2, if it was an ABC decline, didn't also follow an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern on the DAILY CHART, though it probably did so on the intraday chart. The point I'm trying to make is that, usually downcycles follow BOTH inverse Elliott Wave 12345 and ABC patterns, however, occasionally, a downcycle only has an ABC pattern on the daily chart, without also having an inverse 12345 pattern.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed late today, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The fact that VIX fell -4.25% vs SPX rising +1.37% today is a bearish indication, because, it's a sharp +2.88% rise in complacency/-2.88% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry today 10-6-09.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has a bearish weekly candle last week, with a spike on a dark candle, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The weekly Fed Credit data is bearish, since it fell -$12.435 Billion in the five day period ending 9-30-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
The newest SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) chart with the Elliott Wave count suggests that the Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking/peaked (possibly/probably peaked on 9-23-09), see chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw.
The DJ Real Estate Index put in a bearish spike on a dark candle on 9-17-09, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 925 to 950, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
There has not been too much noise about the China crash (deflation, LOL), see the daily SSEC chart at http://bit.ly/eqH3l.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since 9-2-09 peaked on Wednesday 9-23-09 (bearish candle with a spike on the daily chart, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, and, looks like it might have been the final Wave 5 blowoff spike move, of the important likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (probably Wave B and Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07).
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is in a Short Term Wave 4 or Wave 2 Upcycle, that began very early on 10-2, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/ggZoR, and, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5. See the daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The next SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps are at 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40 and 975.15.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume picked up dramatically three weeks ago, to 5.517 billion shares on Friday 9-18, 5.444 billion shares on 9-17, 5.648 billion shares on 9-16, and, 5.307 billion shares on 9-15, versus an EMA (60) at only 4.527 billion shares, which was a sign that the upcycle since 9-2-09 was peaking.
An important Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/08/spx-s-p-500-cyclical-bear-market-since.html, The SPX Cyclical Bear Market Elliott Wave Count) might occur soon/appears to have on 9-23-09, see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT. There's a good chance that a bearish dark candle (close below the open) with a bearish large spike will occur the day SPX peaks (a bearish dark candle with a spike occurred on 9-23-09), however, it looks like SPX might have peaked on 9-23-09.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is ULTRA scary bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
The longer the lag time between when the super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the cycle high tends to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator "kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.
SPX 1014 was the Fibonacci 38.2% target (retraced 38.2% of decline from 1576.09). Add for massive Fed pumping and SPX basically hit the Fibonacci 38.2% target. Fibonacci targets are based on the natural world, not a massively managed one.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps at 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40 and 975.15 will probably get filled in the near future. 940.38 and 905.84 are the next downside gaps after that.
The weekly Fed Credit data is bearish, since it fell -$12.435 Billion in the five day period ending 9-30-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
Fed Credit increased by a massive $44.058 Billion in the five day period ending 9-23-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$18.966 Billion in the five day period ending 9-16-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 9-16-09, the same was true of the previous week (and 9-7-09 was a holiday), see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.
Fed Credit spiked by a significant +$6.283 Billion in the five day period ending 9-9-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 9-9-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the (what's important) important delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was significant.
Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.442 Billion in the five day period ending 9-2-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 9-2-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.
Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.161 Billion in the five day period ending 8-26-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 8-26-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.
Fed Credit spiked by a massive +$45.433 Billion in the five day period ending 8-19-09, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength.
In the six weeks ending 9-23-09 Fed Credit deltas/increases add up to +$143.343 Billion!
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs/relative to VIX) fell (the relative aspect is what's important) substantially late today 10-6-09, which is a bearish indication for Wednesday, after likely early strength, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc (remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing consideration, not indicators, COT data, etc. SPX is/was in important upcycles (short term since 9-2-09 and intermediate term since 3-6-09 and 7-28-09)).
The five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry chart (SPX vs VIX) points to some potentially severe weakness on Wednesday after likely early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, because, it fell (the relative aspect is what's important) dramatically from very early yesterday until early today 10-6-09, which is (correctly was, pointed to current Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle's severe weakness) a very bullish rapid unusually large rise in complacency (spike move past two days), but, it's also a short term very bearish crash of the SPX Wall of Worry.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.88% rise in complacency/-2.88% decline in the Wall of Worry today 10-6, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +1.37% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -4.25%, which points to some potentially severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Wednesday 10-7-09, after likely very early strength.
Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc this week/soon.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Keep in mind that the market tends to fall faster than it rises, larger % declines than % gains tend to occur, and, some of those declines will probably be from high levels.
The three month indicators are off the charts bearish.
Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
There may be clear signs after an important SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) cycle high occurs, such as a very sharp decline shortly after SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaks, that may leave a very bearish spike/candle, and, a large bearish breakaway upside gap may occur.
Data and indicators can only be evaluated after (are secondary to) understanding SPX's (or whatever index, stock or commodity you're trading or investing in) cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system.
Gaps tend to provide a roadmap for where an index/stock/commodity will go, when used in concert with cycles and Elliott Wave patterns (basis/crux of Trade the Cycles). In the current (if SPX peaked on 9-23-09) Wave 1 Monthly Downcycle SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will fill some of the 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 downside gaps.
Fed Credit spiked by a significant +$6.283 Billion in the five day period ending 9-9-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ (Following the money, Fed and Consumer Credit data, and, insider trading activity, is obviously very important).
Weekly Fed Credit data is very important, because, it provides a good idea of how much ammo the large and small program traders have.
SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill downside gaps at 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 in the near future. There are more downside gaps at 768.54, and, at 676.53.
"The SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (Since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave Count," see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives).
SPX's (S & P 500) bearish double top in March 2000/October 2007 is the bull market since 1932 peaking, which is the main problem that the US and the world faces, see http://bit.ly/FypjN.
Keep in mind that cycles plus the Elliott Wave count and gaps are the primary market timing consideration. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Indicators, data, tools, etc are used/evaluated after knowing what the cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps are.
However, an exception to the above is that candlestick charts help to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at -0.51% versus the S & P 500 today/on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was -0.69% versus the XOI today/on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70, 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 51.55 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1068.30 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in rollover mode versus the 6-1-09 and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU (IF YOU SEE THE SECOND weekly chart, it suggests that GDX/HUI/XAU might not have peaked yet, since the current upcycle appears to be a Wave 5 Monthly Upcycle! Correct Boy Wonder! LOL) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +0.85% versus the XAU today/on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at modestly bullish (+0.24% to +0.49% vs XAU) today 10-6-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at bullish (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX) near very bullish today 10-6-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 46.85 (filled), 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56, 43.04 (filled), 42.76, 42.48 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 46.73 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20, 42.12, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 36 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Looking at SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday chart, see http://bit.ly/A9Qr5, the late session bounce appears to be a Wave 4 up move of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle, since the early session cycle high.
However, the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at bullish near very bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR, but, the daily Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.51% vs SPX today 10-6-09.
Also, the market had clearly positive breadth today 10-6-09 (NYSE up to down volume appears to be correct today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a bullish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks) indication for early Wednesday 10-7.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle since 10-2 could actually be (I suspect it is/might be, due to bullish 5 day WMT Lead Indicator and bullish market breadth today) a Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle, if the decline from 9-23 to 10-2, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, was an Elliott Wave ABC down up down large Short Term Wave 1 Downcycle (that didn't also follow the usual 12345 down up down up down pattern).
Usually Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycles also have an inverse 12345 down up down up down pattern (I'd have to show a few examples, maybe I'll do a post about that), this one, the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) decline from 9-23 to 10-2, if it was an ABC decline, didn't also follow an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 pattern on the DAILY CHART, though it probably did so on the intraday chart. The point I'm trying to make is that, usually downcycles follow BOTH inverse Elliott Wave 12345 and ABC patterns, however, occasionally, a downcycle only has an ABC pattern on the daily chart, without also having an inverse 12345 pattern.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed late today, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The fact that VIX fell -4.25% vs SPX rising +1.37% today is a bearish indication, because, it's a sharp +2.88% rise in complacency/-2.88% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry today 10-6-09.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has a bearish weekly candle last week, with a spike on a dark candle, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The weekly Fed Credit data is bearish, since it fell -$12.435 Billion in the five day period ending 9-30-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
The newest SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) chart with the Elliott Wave count suggests that the Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking/peaked (possibly/probably peaked on 9-23-09), see chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw.
The DJ Real Estate Index put in a bearish spike on a dark candle on 9-17-09, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 925 to 950, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
There has not been too much noise about the China crash (deflation, LOL), see the daily SSEC chart at http://bit.ly/eqH3l.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since 9-2-09 peaked on Wednesday 9-23-09 (bearish candle with a spike on the daily chart, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR, and, looks like it might have been the final Wave 5 blowoff spike move, of the important likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (probably Wave B and Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07).
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is in a Short Term Wave 4 or Wave 2 Upcycle, that began very early on 10-2, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/ggZoR, and, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/A9Qr5. See the daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The next SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps are at 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40 and 975.15.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume picked up dramatically three weeks ago, to 5.517 billion shares on Friday 9-18, 5.444 billion shares on 9-17, 5.648 billion shares on 9-16, and, 5.307 billion shares on 9-15, versus an EMA (60) at only 4.527 billion shares, which was a sign that the upcycle since 9-2-09 was peaking.
An important Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2009/08/spx-s-p-500-cyclical-bear-market-since.html, The SPX Cyclical Bear Market Elliott Wave Count) might occur soon/appears to have on 9-23-09, see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT. There's a good chance that a bearish dark candle (close below the open) with a bearish large spike will occur the day SPX peaks (a bearish dark candle with a spike occurred on 9-23-09), however, it looks like SPX might have peaked on 9-23-09.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is ULTRA scary bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
The longer the lag time between when the super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the cycle high tends to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator "kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.
SPX 1014 was the Fibonacci 38.2% target (retraced 38.2% of decline from 1576.09). Add for massive Fed pumping and SPX basically hit the Fibonacci 38.2% target. Fibonacci targets are based on the natural world, not a massively managed one.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps at 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40 and 975.15 will probably get filled in the near future. 940.38 and 905.84 are the next downside gaps after that.
The weekly Fed Credit data is bearish, since it fell -$12.435 Billion in the five day period ending 9-30-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
Fed Credit increased by a massive $44.058 Billion in the five day period ending 9-23-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$18.966 Billion in the five day period ending 9-16-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 9-16-09, the same was true of the previous week (and 9-7-09 was a holiday), see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.
Fed Credit spiked by a significant +$6.283 Billion in the five day period ending 9-9-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 9-9-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the (what's important) important delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was significant.
Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.442 Billion in the five day period ending 9-2-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 9-2-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.
Fed Credit spiked by a substantial +$14.161 Billion in the five day period ending 8-26-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength. Even though the daily credit injections were huge in the five day period ending 8-26-09, the same was true of the previous week, see below, so, the delta/change from the previous week wasn't massive, but, it was substantial.
Fed Credit spiked by a massive +$45.433 Billion in the five day period ending 8-19-09, which explains some/much of the recent SPX/market strength.
In the six weeks ending 9-23-09 Fed Credit deltas/increases add up to +$143.343 Billion!
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs/relative to VIX) fell (the relative aspect is what's important) substantially late today 10-6-09, which is a bearish indication for Wednesday, after likely early strength, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc (remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing consideration, not indicators, COT data, etc. SPX is/was in important upcycles (short term since 9-2-09 and intermediate term since 3-6-09 and 7-28-09)).
The five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry chart (SPX vs VIX) points to some potentially severe weakness on Wednesday after likely early strength, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, because, it fell (the relative aspect is what's important) dramatically from very early yesterday until early today 10-6-09, which is (correctly was, pointed to current Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle's severe weakness) a very bullish rapid unusually large rise in complacency (spike move past two days), but, it's also a short term very bearish crash of the SPX Wall of Worry.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.88% rise in complacency/-2.88% decline in the Wall of Worry today 10-6, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +1.37% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -4.25%, which points to some potentially severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Wednesday 10-7-09, after likely very early strength.
Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc this week/soon.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Keep in mind that the market tends to fall faster than it rises, larger % declines than % gains tend to occur, and, some of those declines will probably be from high levels.
The three month indicators are off the charts bearish.
Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
There may be clear signs after an important SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) cycle high occurs, such as a very sharp decline shortly after SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaks, that may leave a very bearish spike/candle, and, a large bearish breakaway upside gap may occur.
Data and indicators can only be evaluated after (are secondary to) understanding SPX's (or whatever index, stock or commodity you're trading or investing in) cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system.
Gaps tend to provide a roadmap for where an index/stock/commodity will go, when used in concert with cycles and Elliott Wave patterns (basis/crux of Trade the Cycles). In the current (if SPX peaked on 9-23-09) Wave 1 Monthly Downcycle SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will fill some of the 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 downside gaps.
Fed Credit spiked by a significant +$6.283 Billion in the five day period ending 9-9-09, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ (Following the money, Fed and Consumer Credit data, and, insider trading activity, is obviously very important).
Weekly Fed Credit data is very important, because, it provides a good idea of how much ammo the large and small program traders have.
SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill downside gaps at 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 in the near future. There are more downside gaps at 768.54, and, at 676.53.
"The SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (Since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave Count," see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives).
SPX's (S & P 500) bearish double top in March 2000/October 2007 is the bull market since 1932 peaking, which is the main problem that the US and the world faces, see http://bit.ly/FypjN.
Keep in mind that cycles plus the Elliott Wave count and gaps are the primary market timing consideration. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Indicators, data, tools, etc are used/evaluated after knowing what the cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps are.
However, an exception to the above is that candlestick charts help to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at -0.51% versus the S & P 500 today/on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was -0.69% versus the XOI today/on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70, 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 51.55 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1068.30 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1064.66 (filled), 1044.38 (filled), 1040.46, 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in rollover mode versus the 6-1-09 and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU (IF YOU SEE THE SECOND weekly chart, it suggests that GDX/HUI/XAU might not have peaked yet, since the current upcycle appears to be a Wave 5 Monthly Upcycle! Correct Boy Wonder! LOL) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +0.85% versus the XAU today/on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at modestly bullish (+0.24% to +0.49% vs XAU) today 10-6-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at bullish (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX) near very bullish today 10-6-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 46.85 (filled), 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56, 43.04 (filled), 42.76, 42.48 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 46.73 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20, 42.12, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 36 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:28 PM
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