The SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (Since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave Count
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave count is surprisingly clear, and, strongly suggests that the 3-6-09 cycle low was a large Wave 3 down (since May 2008) cycle low, which indicates that the Grizzly Bear probably lives, and, a major warning, will probably get his huge paw on the vast majority of stocks and commodities in the coming months, and, will probably viciously swat them to the ground. Why did most stocks and commodities spike dramatically higher since early March? Because of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi)/market spike move.
OK, the chart I'm using (Yahoo's candlestick charts are USEFUL) for the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave count is at http://bit.ly/D6qqi. Wave 1 down bottomed in March 2008 and did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern. Wave 2 up peaked in May 2008 and did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, with three of the four dark candles marking the Wave 1, 3, and 5 cycle highs of Wave 2 up.
Wave 1 down of Wave 3 down (Wave 3 down began in May 2008) bottomed in July 2008, see http://bit.ly/D6qqi. Wave 2 up of Wave 3 down peaked in August 2008. Wave 3 down of Wave 3 down bottomed in late November 2008, and, did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern. Wave 4 up of Wave 3 down peaked in early January 2009, see http://bit.ly/D6qqi. Finally, Wave 5 down of Wave 3 down bottomed on March 6, 2009, see http://bit.ly/D6qqi.
This Elliott Wave count means that the upcycle since 3-6-09 is (probably) Wave 4 up (countertrend strength) of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, and, that a probably huge Wave 5 downcycle either has (appears to have begun on 6-11-09, but, a major sell signal didn't occur yet, it will occur if the 877.52 downside gap gets filled next week) or soon will begin.
Signs that the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) upcycle since 3-6-09 is countertrend action are that it began (very early on, see second tall candle) with a huge spike move, which is peaking action, then it started to roll over and flatten out, and, also, that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi ) never came back down/failed to create a relatively flat uptrend line.
Important/major upcycles almost always begin relatively flat, and, even if they start with a bang, they almost always come back down and put in a second cycle low, such that the uptrend begins relatively flat.
One can only talk about likely scenarios, and, no tool works 100% of the time, but, the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Elliott Wave count since 10-11-07, plus the nature of cycles (huge spike move very early on since 3-6-09, and, a parabolic relatively vertical uptrend line since 3-6-09), combined with the fundamental realities (tight credit, debt laden consumer, large job losses, auto depression, real estate depression and large growing inventory, etc), clearly point to an SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) still probably being in effect.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
OK, the chart I'm using (Yahoo's candlestick charts are USEFUL) for the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave count is at http://bit.ly/D6qqi. Wave 1 down bottomed in March 2008 and did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern. Wave 2 up peaked in May 2008 and did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, with three of the four dark candles marking the Wave 1, 3, and 5 cycle highs of Wave 2 up.
Wave 1 down of Wave 3 down (Wave 3 down began in May 2008) bottomed in July 2008, see http://bit.ly/D6qqi. Wave 2 up of Wave 3 down peaked in August 2008. Wave 3 down of Wave 3 down bottomed in late November 2008, and, did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern. Wave 4 up of Wave 3 down peaked in early January 2009, see http://bit.ly/D6qqi. Finally, Wave 5 down of Wave 3 down bottomed on March 6, 2009, see http://bit.ly/D6qqi.
This Elliott Wave count means that the upcycle since 3-6-09 is (probably) Wave 4 up (countertrend strength) of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, and, that a probably huge Wave 5 downcycle either has (appears to have begun on 6-11-09, but, a major sell signal didn't occur yet, it will occur if the 877.52 downside gap gets filled next week) or soon will begin.
Signs that the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) upcycle since 3-6-09 is countertrend action are that it began (very early on, see second tall candle) with a huge spike move, which is peaking action, then it started to roll over and flatten out, and, also, that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi ) never came back down/failed to create a relatively flat uptrend line.
Important/major upcycles almost always begin relatively flat, and, even if they start with a bang, they almost always come back down and put in a second cycle low, such that the uptrend begins relatively flat.
One can only talk about likely scenarios, and, no tool works 100% of the time, but, the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Elliott Wave count since 10-11-07, plus the nature of cycles (huge spike move very early on since 3-6-09, and, a parabolic relatively vertical uptrend line since 3-6-09), combined with the fundamental realities (tight credit, debt laden consumer, large job losses, auto depression, real estate depression and large growing inventory, etc), clearly point to an SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/D6qqi) Cyclical Bear Market (since 10-11-07) still probably being in effect.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
Labels: SPX
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:09 PM
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