Trade the Cycles

Saturday, September 09, 2006

NEM Approached It's Cyclical Bear Market Downtrend Line This Week

Reliable lead indicator NEM approached it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line this week, then plunged and made a breakaway gap to the downside, opening at 50.10 on Thursday versus Wednesday's close at 50.91. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The first chart shows NEM's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line. The second chart from February shows that the Wave 5 long term upcycle was peaking, and, peaked on 5-11-06, which was a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the XAU and HUI (began late 2000). Reliable lead indicator NEM's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred on 1-31-06 (began October 2000). The third chart shows the US Dollar putting in a major cycle low above it's previous one, indicating that the USD is in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, the fourth chart is the NEM Lead Indicator chart that reveals NEM dramatically leading to the downside months before the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for HUI/XAU.

There are also annotated Trade The Cycles charts for HUI/NEM/XAU dated June 2 which show that Trade The Cycles nailed the very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for HUI/XAU.

There shouldn't be much relief for longs until Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM) bottoms in the 100-110 range (XAU) in the next few weeks. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/