Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

The S & P 500 (SPX) Drives Index Fund Trading

Which is a huge factor that most are unaware of, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC, and, note how the XAU tends to follow SPX. Here's a 3 month chart of SPX vs the XAU: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,m26-12-9,p12,m26-12-9,p12,fs,m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=%5EGSPC.

On a very long term cycle basis (15-20 years for a very long term up or down cycle, about 35 years on average for an entire very long term cycle) SPX (S & P 500 ) and the XAU have a very high negative correlation (SPX hit a very long term cycle high in March 2000 vs the XAU htting a very long term cycle low in October 2000), but, thanks largely to index fund trading, which is driven by SPX, the shorter the cycle timeframe the correlation between SPX (S & P 500 ) and the XAU usually becomes much more positive. For intraday, very short term, short term, and monthly cycles index fund trading is a huge factor because there tends to be a high positive correlation. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/