...........Is A Cyclical Bear Market Upon Us?
Wave A Down continues today: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= . The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.41% yesterday but is a bullish +1.05% vs the XAU right now. The XAU has downside gaps at 134.17 from 3-29, at 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24. It looks like NEM is going to fill it's remaining downside gaps today or Monday and the XAU may do so as well.
This wasn't supposed to happen in Wave A, the gap filling action should have finished in Wave C, so, the major intermediate term upcycle since 5-16-05, the long term upcycle since 5-10-04, and the first Cyclical Bull Market (HUI/NEM/XAU) of the very long term upcycle/secular Bull Market that began in late 2000 may have ended. Have a nice weekend!
There seems to be far too much fear revealed by the XAU Put/Call Ratio at 1.30191 and XAU Implied Volatility at 47.255, both at extremely high levels, for a major cycle high to occur, and, there hasn't been the kind of long liquidation or short selling by the gold Commercial Traders that one would expect to see near a major cycle high. As long as the major upcycle remains intact, really as long as a 5% follow through sell signal doesn't occur, Trade the Cycles will remain on a major buy signal.
Much of the gold/silver stock weakness recently has been due to index fund selling caused by a weak S & P 500 (SPX), so one must keep that in mind also. Index funds have become a huge factor. Much of this weakness is simply due to index funds mechanically selling their gold/silver stock components.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
This wasn't supposed to happen in Wave A, the gap filling action should have finished in Wave C, so, the major intermediate term upcycle since 5-16-05, the long term upcycle since 5-10-04, and the first Cyclical Bull Market (HUI/NEM/XAU) of the very long term upcycle/secular Bull Market that began in late 2000 may have ended. Have a nice weekend!
There seems to be far too much fear revealed by the XAU Put/Call Ratio at 1.30191 and XAU Implied Volatility at 47.255, both at extremely high levels, for a major cycle high to occur, and, there hasn't been the kind of long liquidation or short selling by the gold Commercial Traders that one would expect to see near a major cycle high. As long as the major upcycle remains intact, really as long as a 5% follow through sell signal doesn't occur, Trade the Cycles will remain on a major buy signal.
Much of the gold/silver stock weakness recently has been due to index fund selling caused by a weak S & P 500 (SPX), so one must keep that in mind also. Index funds have become a huge factor. Much of this weakness is simply due to index funds mechanically selling their gold/silver stock components.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:18 AM
