HUI (as well as NEM, XAU) Appears to be Putting in an Elliot Wave 3 Cycle High for the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle

HUI (as well as NEM, XAU) appears to be putting in an Elliot Wave 3 cycle high for the major intermediate term upcycle that began on 5-16-05. This minor intermediate term cycle high that may have occurred on Friday 1-6 for HUI, NEM, and the XAU is probably an important though not major cycle high, because the Elliot Wave 5 cycle high probably lies ahead of us and should occur in the 330-350 range for HUI, based on extrapolating the prior long term cycle highs. In order for HUI to reach it's major upcycle trendline (at 240ish) it would have to fall about 65 points or -21.30% from 1-6's close at 305.10. Even if HUI's major upcycle trendline turns up a 15% or so correction appears likely in the next few weeks. Once the minor intermediate term cycle highs are in (they may have finally occurred on 1-6), HUI, NEM, and the XAU will probably do a down, up, down, Elliot Wave A, B, C minor intermediate downcycle which is probably the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 down. The latest gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is modestly bullish but points to some weakness, with the gold Commercial Traders (data as of 1-3-06) engaging in an aggressive long trade (added a large 6357 long futures/options contracts) but also doing significant short selling (added 3299 short futures/options contracts). This jives with gold being in Elliot Wave B up of an A, B, C correction (see 1 year chart). In the minor intermediate term downcycle HUI, NEM, and the XAU could, based on their major upcycle trendlines in the latest 1 year charts, fall in the next few weeks to 240-250 (HUI), 46-48 (NEM), and 112-117 (XAU). The minor intermediate term downcycle for HUI, NEM, and the XAU should take approximately two to four weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 56.66 from 1-6, at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 fron 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps have been filled, so one needs to track gaps closely.

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