It Looks Like SPX Will Fill the 1120.59/1114.05 Downside Gaps in This Downcycle Since Tuesday
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill the 1120.59/1114.05 downside gaps in this downcycle since Tuesday 12-29-09, so, a cycle low target of 1110-1112 is reasonable, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) appears to be in Wave 5 down of the downcycle since Tuesday 12-29-09, with Wave 1 down bottoming at mid session on Tuesday 12-29-09, Wave 2 up peaking shortly before session's end on Tuesday, Wave 3 down bottoming just after the open on Wednesday 12-30-09, Wave 4 up peaking just after the open today 12-31-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at
So, Wave 5 down is currently in progress,
and, it looks like the 1120.59/1114.05 SPX downside gaps will probably get filled in this downcycle since Tuesday 12-29-09.
A cycle low target of 1110-1112 is reasonable,
since important cycle highs/lows tend to occur shortly after gap filling has been completed, as we've seen many times in recent weeks. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
Follow me on Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. .......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
There Was a Massive $15.065 Billion in Fed Credit (Quantitative Easing) Today
There was a massive $15.065 Billion in Fed Credit (Quantitative Easing) today 12-30-09, see
Given the massive amount of Fed Credit (Quantitative Easing) in recent days, weeks, and months one simply can't fight Bubbles Bernanke and the Fed.Follow me on Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has a bearish daily candle and a bearish two day double top yesterday 12-29 and 12-28-09, see
However, the five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at is very bullish, since WMT's leading to the upside by +1.00% to +1.99%.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Upcycle since Friday 12-18-09 is peaking/peaked, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at
Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the most heavily weighted SPX component (3.11%), has a bearish breakaway gap and an ugly chart, see Get ready for the (short term bearish now) XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, see SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) pattern of doing a brief pop very early on followed by a fizzle nearly EVERY DAY continues (probably the big boys/program traders bidding the market up very early every day, then they dump it on the lemmings), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart
Massive Quantitative Easing in recent months, liquidity injected into the financial system, accounts for market strength recently.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09 (Called "Quantitative Easing" when Fed Credit increases, which is a fancy way of saying that liquidity is being injected into the financial system/markets, which is obviously an inflationary easy money policy), which was/is a bullish indication, see .A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication.Fed Credit rose a massive +$75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
Early tomorrow it looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably be firm (there's a brief pop nearly every session very early on, then FIZZLE), since the intraday candlestick chart looks bullish, see the intraday candlestick chart at
It's not a coincidence that an SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) session cycle low occurred on 12-28-09 (today SPX peaked at 1126.42, very soon after filling the 1126.19 upside gap from the open; yesterday SPX bottomed, nearly a session cycle low, shortly after filling the 1127.78 downside gap from the open, then bounced most of the remainder of the session) shortly after filling the 1126.48 downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
It's not a coincidence that an SPX session cycle low occurred at 1116.00 on 12-23-09, very soon after filling the 1118.02 downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
Gap/magnets to keep in mind tomorrow are 12-24's downside gap at 1120.59, 12-22's downside gap at 1114.05 from the open, 12-21's downside gap at 1102.47 from the open, and, any gap that might be created at tomorrow's open.
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) started to roll over dramatically on 12-21 soon after filling the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from 12-17-09's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at . 12-21's strength was basically just a brief gap filling spike. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets on Thursday 12-17-09, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the daily candlestick chart .
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1120.59, 1114.05 and 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at . 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was only 2.493 billion shares on 12-23-09 (2.849 billion shares on 12-22-09, 3.360 billion shares on 12-21-09) vs the 60 day EMA at 3.987 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing modest strength in a meaningful way. The anemic/very low volume is bullish, in the sense that rarely will an important cycle high occur on anemic or even average volume. Usually, an important cycle high will be accompanied/"confirmed" by a major volume spike.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at is very bullish, since WMT's leading to the upside by +1.00% to +1.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at modestly bullish (+0.25% to +0.49%) today, see The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed since early Friday 12-18-09 (VIX doesn't appear in the chart in recent days), which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is not available, see VIX was down -0.25% vs SPX up +0.02% today, which is a slightly bearish indication for early Thursday 12-31-09, because, it's a slight +0.23% rise in complacency/-0.23% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, slight weakness is likely very early on Thursday. Market breadth closed at mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Thursday, see . Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is very bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=%5EvixSPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month+, see which looks like important peaking action; the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking. SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks, it has rolled over dramatically.Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see .Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is/was a bullish indication, see Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which was a bearish indication, see
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see .
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOtThe precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.Chart one at shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/NEM XAU HUI
SPX Has a Bearish Daily Candle and a Two Day Double Top
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has a bearish daily candle and a bearish two day double top, see
Follow me on Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Upcycle since Friday 12-18-09 is peaking/peaked, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at
Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the most heavily weighted SPX component (3.11%), has a bearish breakaway gap and an ugly chart, see Get ready for the (short term bearish now) XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, see SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) pattern of doing a brief pop very early on followed by a fizzle EVERY DAY continues (probably the big boys/program traders bidding the market up very early every day, then they dump it on the lemmings), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart
Massive Quantitative Easing in recent months, liquidity injected into the financial system, accounts for market strength recently.A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09 (Called "Quantitative Easing" when Fed Credit increases, which is a fancy way of saying that liquidity is being injected into the financial system/markets, which is obviously an inflationary easy money policy), which was/is a bullish indication, see .A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication.Fed Credit rose a massive +$75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
Early tomorrow it looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably be weak (possibly after brief very early strength; there's a brief pop nearly every session very early on, then FIZZLE), since the intraday candlestick chart looks bearish, see the intraday candlestick chart at
It's not a coincidence that an SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) session cycle low occurred yesterday 12-28-09 (today SPX bottomed, nearly a session cycle low, shortly after filling the 1127.78 downside gap from the open, then bounced most of the remainder of the session, NO coincidence!) shortly after filling the 1126.48 downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
It's not a coincidence that an SPX session cycle low occurred at 1116.00 on 12-23-09, very soon after filling the 1118.02 downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
Gap/magnets to keep in mind tomorrow are 12-24's downside gap at 1120.59, 12-22's downside gap at 1114.05 from the open, 12-21's downside gap at 1102.47 from the open, and, any gap that might be created at Tuesday's open.
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) started to roll over dramatically on 12-21 soon after filling the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from 12-17-09's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at . 12-21's strength was basically just a brief gap filling spike. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets on Thursday 12-17-09, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the daily candlestick chart .
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1120.59, 1114.05 and 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at . 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was only 2.493 billion shares on 12-23-09 (2.849 billion shares on 12-22-09, 3.360 billion shares on 12-21-09) vs the 60 day EMA at 3.987 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing modest strength in a meaningful way. The anemic/very low volume is bullish, in the sense that rarely will an important cycle high occur on anemic or even average volume. Usually, an important cycle high will be accompanied/"confirmed" by a major volume spike.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at is modestly bullish, since WMT's leading to the upside by +0.25% to +0.49%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at bullish (+0.50% to +0.99%) today, see The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed since early Friday 12-18-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is not available, but, VIX was up +0.40% today 12-29-09 vs SPX down -0.14%, which is a modestly bullish indication for VERY early tomorrow/Wednesday, see VIX was up +0.40% vs SPX down -0.14% today, which is a modestly bullish indication for early Wednesday 12-30-09, because, it's a modest +0.26% rise in fear/+0.26% rise in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, modest strength is likely very early on Wednesday. Market breadth closed at modestly negative today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Wednesday, see . Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is very bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=%5EvixSPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month+, see which looks like important peaking action; the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking. SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks, it has rolled over dramatically.Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see .Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is/was a bullish indication, see Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which was a bearish indication, see
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see .
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOtThe precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.Chart one at shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/NEM XAU HUI
SPX's Upcycle Since 12-18-09 Is Peaking/Peaked
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) pattern of doing a brief pop very early on followed by a fizzle EVERY DAY continues (probably the big boys/program traders bidding the market up very early every day, then they dump it on the lemmings), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart
Follow me on Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09 (Called "Quantitative Easing" when Fed Credit increases, which is a fancy way of saying that liquidity is being injected into the financial system/markets, which is obviously an inflationary easy money policy), which was/is a bullish indication, see .A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication.Fed Credit rose a massive +$75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Upcycle since Friday 12-18-09 is peaking/peaked, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at
Early tomorrow it looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably be weak (probably after brief very early strength; there's a brief pop nearly every session very early on, then FIZZLE), since the intraday candlestick chart looks risky bullish/rebound peaking, see the intraday candlestick chart at
It's not a coincidence that an SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) session cycle low occurred today 12-28-09 shortly after filling the 1126.48 downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
It's not a coincidence that an SPX session cycle low occurred at 1116.00 on 12-23-09, very soon after filling the 1118.02 downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
Gap/magnets to keep in mind tomorrow are 12-24's downside gap at 1120.59, 12-22's downside gap at 1114.05 from the open, 12-21's downside gap at 1102.47 from the open, and, any gap that might be created at Tuesday's open.
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) started to roll over dramatically on 12-21 soon after filling the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from 12-17-09's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at . 12-21's strength was basically just a brief gap filling spike. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets on Thursday 12-17-09, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the daily candlestick chart .
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1120.59, 1114.05 and 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at . 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was only 2.493 billion shares on 12-23-09 (2.849 billion shares yesterday 12-22-09, 3.360 billion shares on 12-21-09) vs the 60 day EMA at 3.987 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing modest strength in a meaningful way. The anemic/very low volume is bullish, in the sense that rarely will an important cycle high occur on anemic or even average volume. Usually, an important cycle high will be accompanied/"confirmed" by a major volume spike.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at is slightly bullish, since WMT's leading to the upside by +0.00% to +0.24%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at bullish (+0.50% to +0.99%) today, see The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed since early Friday 12-18-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is not available, but, VIX was up +2.36% today 12-28-09 (VIX's collapse after being up about +5.00% very early on is a bearish indication for early tomorrow), which is a bullish indication for VERY early tomorrow/Tuesday, see VIX was up +2.36% vs SPX up +0.12% today, which is a bullish indication for early Tuesday 12-29-09, because, it's a sharp +2.48% rise in fear/+2.48% rise in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, strength is likely very early on Tuesday. Market breadth closed at mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Tuesday, see . Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is very bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=%5EvixSPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month+, see which looks like important peaking action; the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking. SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks, it has rolled over dramatically.Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see .Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is/was a bullish indication, see Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which was a bearish indication, see
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see .
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOtThe precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.Chart one at shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/NEM XAU HUI
