SPX's (S & P 500) Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle Since 3-6-09 Is Peaking In Rollover Mode

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives)) is peaking/peaked (maybe yesterday 7-30-09) in dramatic rollover mode, versus the 6-11-09 cycle high at 956.23, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

Also, SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term/Monthly Rollover Upcycle since 7-8-09 is peaking/peaked (possibly yesterday 7-30-09), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR.

NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked yesterday 7-30-09, see http://bit.ly/11JgKT.

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in bearish spikes on it's daily candles the past two days, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Today 7-31-09's candle was dark/bearish/red.

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) looks like it will probably try to fill yesterday's downside gap at 975.15 early on Monday, see http://bit.ly/ggZoR.

Normally/often, when an important cycle high occurs, a bearish large spike on a bearish dark candle (close below the open) will mark the cycle high on the daily candle, and, yesterday 7-30-09's candle isn't too bearish, it's white with a small spike, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. It doesn't clearly look like an important cycle high, except that it might be a rollover Wave 5 type of blowoff spike move (on high volume, discussed later). It could be an important cycle high.

The market had mostly positive/bullish breadth today 7-31-09, with some mixed/modestly bearish breadth, which is normally a bullish indication, see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances. The NASDAQ had a case of modestly bad breadth.

SPX's (S & P 500) volume was well above average again today 7-31-09, at 5.008 billion shares versus 5.368 billion shares yesterday 7-30-09 versus the EMA (60) at 4.538 billion shares, which is bearish, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT (volume bar at bottom of chart and volume data at top left hand side), because, the big and smart money appears to have used yesterday 7-30-09's substantial strength and today 7-31-09's modest strength to exit. In recent days the big and smart boys and girls appear to be getting the hell out, as evidenced by above average volume.

The broad market Walmart Lead Indicator closed at modestly bearish, -0.27% vs SPX (S & P 500) today 7-31-09.

The three month indicators are off the charts bearish.

Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at bullish (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX) near very bullish today 7-31-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) experienced a very rapid large rise in fear very late in the session, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc. Some very early weakness/gap filling action (likely attempt to fill the 975.15 downside gap from yesterday 7-30's open) is likely. Gaps are like magnets!

The five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry chart (SPX vs VIX) points to strength early on Monday (likely very early weakness), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, because, VIX/fear substantially outperformed SPX recently.

SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.12% rise in fear/+2.12% rise in the Wall of Worry today 7-31, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +0.07% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +2.05%, which points to likely substantial SPX (S & P 500)/market strength early on Monday 8-3-09, after likely very early weakness/downside gap filling action (975.15 downside gap).

Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).

Looking at SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) five day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, yesterday 7-30's substantial strength looks like a final Wave 5 type of blowoff spike move, that was confirmed by well above average volume.

Since 7-8-09, when the current Short Term/Monthly Upcycle began, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done an extremely parabolic Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (could also still be Wave 3 up of the Short Term Upcycle since 7-8-09, but, it appears to be Wave 5 peaking), with Wave 5 up in progress (might have peaked yesterday 7-30-09) since very early on Friday 7-17-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The Wave 2 and Wave 4 down corrections were very shallow and very brief.

The huge SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) spike move in effect for the past three weeks jives with important peaking action, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

There may be clear signs after an important SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) cycle high occurs, such as a very sharp decline shortly after SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaks, that may leave a very bearish spike/candle, and, a large bearish breakaway upside gap may occur.

Fed Credit spiked a massive +$34.247 Billion in the W/E 7-15 and the market spikes big time, coincidence? NO. See http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Also, it's easier to spike the market near an important cycle high, when a cycle's strength is near a maximum point.

Data and indicators can only be evaluated after (are secondary to) understanding SPX's (or whatever index, stock or commodity you're trading or investing in) cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system.

Gaps tend to provide a roadmap for where an index/stock/commodity will go, when used in concert with cycles and Elliott Wave patterns (basis/crux of Trade the Cycles). In the upcoming Short Term Wave A Downcycle SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill some or all of the 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 downside gaps.

I'll be looking to trade ultra short via ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc this week/soon.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Fed Credit fell -$611 Million in the W/E 7-29, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. (Following the money, Fed and Consumer Credit data, and, insider trading activity, is obviously very important).

Federal Reserve bank credit fell -$611 Million in the week/five day period 7-29-09, it fell -$1.087 Billion in the week/five day period 7-22-09, it spiked a massive +$34.247 Billion in the week/five day period ending 7-15-09, it fell by -$9.453 Billion in the week/five day period ending 7-8-09, it fell by -$9.645 Billion in the week/five day period ending 7-1-09, it collapsed a massive -$58.524 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-24, it rose a massive +$29.406 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-17, but, it collapsed a massive -$40.529 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-10, after falling -$8.213 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-3, and, after collapsing a humongous -$90.672 Billion in the week/five day period ending 5-27, which is probably an indication of an imminent very large stock market decline, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. I'm back to watching weekly (daily maybe also) Fed Credit data like a hawk, like I used to do.

Weekly Fed Credit data is very important, because, it provides a good idea of how much ammo the large and small program traders have.

SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill downside gaps at 975.15 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 in the near future. There are more downside gaps at 768.54, and, at 676.53.

Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

"The SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (Since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave Count," see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives).

SPX's (S & P 500) bearish double top in March 2000/October 2007 is the bull market since 1932 peaking, which is the main problem that the US and the world faces, see http://bit.ly/FypjN.

Keep in mind that cycles plus the Elliott Wave count and gaps are the primary market timing consideration. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Indicators, data, tools, etc are used/evaluated after knowing what the cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps are.

However, an exception to the above is that candlestick charts help to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.

See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at -0.27% versus the S & P 500 today/on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.

The longer the lag time between when the super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the cycle high tends to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator "kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.

I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.19% versus the XOI today/on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.

Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 49.37.

SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish breakaway upside gap at 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.

Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 probably peaked on 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.

GDX/HUI/XAU's rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 peaked on 6-1-09 (GDX very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 44.55, 40.92, 39.85 (filled), 39.41 (filled), 38.31 (filled)), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

Wave 5/Wave C down of the huge GDX/HUI/XAU Monthly Wave A Downcycle since 6-1-09 BOTTOMED on 7-13-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The Monthly/Short Term (countertrend) Wave B/Wave 2 Upcycle since 7-13-09, that PEAKED on Thursday 7-23-09 (GDX 39.85, 38.35 (filled) large bearish breakaway upside gaps), was an opportunity to take profits/exit. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The strength from 4-17-09 to 6-1-09 was peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.

GDX/HUI/XAU are in a Short Term/Monthly Wave C/Wave 3 Downcycle since 7-23-09 (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -0.08% versus the XAU today/on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1, -0.23% on 6-30, -0.29% on 6-29, +0.24% on 6-26, -1.58% on 6-25, -1.24% on 6-24, -0.42% on 6-23, +2.67% on 6-22, -1.85% on 6-19, +0.24% on 6-18, +0.80% on 6-17, +0.25% on 6-16, +0.95% on 6-15, -0.12% on 6-12, -0.48% on 6-11, -0.30% on 6-10, +0.49% on 6-9, -0.67% on 6-8, -1.19% on 6-5, -1.02% on 6-4, +1.05% on 6-3, -1.07% on 6-2, -0.59% on 6-1) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at slightly bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at bullish (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX) today 7-31-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 37.18, 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 41.14 (filled), 39.11 (filled), 39.37, 38.45, and TBD.

GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 44.55, 43.51, 40.92, 39.85 (filled), 38.35 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44, 44.11, 41.58 (filled), 40.34 (filled).

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 26 weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX's (S & P 500) Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle Since 3-6-09 Is Peaking In Rollover Mode

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) likely countertrend Wave B/Wave 4 Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 (see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives)) is peaking/peaked in dramatic rollover mode, versus the 6-11-09 cycle high at 956.23, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

Also, SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term/Monthly Rollover Upcycle since 7-8-09 is peaking/peaked (possibly today 7-30-09), see http://bit.ly/ggZoR.

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) looks like it will probably try to fill today's downside gap at 975.15 early tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/ggZoR.

Normally/often, when an important cycle high occurs, a bearish large spike on a bearish dark candle (close below the open) will mark the cycle high on the daily candle, and, today 7-30-09's candle isn't too bearish, it's white with a small spike, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. It doesn't clearly look like an important cycle high, except that it might be a rollover Wave 5 type of blowoff spike move (on high volume, discussed later). It could be an important cycle high.

The market had positive bullish breadth today, which is normally a bullish indication, see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances. However, NYSE Up to Down Volume was, if correct, extremely bearish, at 8% to 91%. Probably the numbers are the opposite, which is a very bullish indication (normally).

SPX's (S & P 500) volume was well above average today 7-30-09, at 5.368 billion shares versus the EMA (60) at 4.520 billion shares, which is bearish, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT (volume bar at bottom of chart and volume data at top left hand side), because, the big money appears to have used today's substantial strength to exit. In recent days the big boys and girls appear to be getting the hell out, as evidenced by above average volume.

The broad market Walmart Lead Indicator closed at slightly bullish, +0.05% vs SPX (S & P 500) today 7-30-09.

The three month indicators are off the charts bearish.

Check out the super bearish three month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,^GSPC.

Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at modestly bullish (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX) today 7-30-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed during most of the session, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc. Some very early weakness/gap filling action (likely attempt to fill the 975.15 downside gap from today 7-30's open) is likely.

The five day intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry chart (SPX vs VIX) points to strength early on Friday (likely very early weakness), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, because, VIX/fear substantially outperformed SPX recently.

SPX (S & P 500) experienced a modest +0.37% rise in fear/+0.37% rise in the Wall of Worry today 7-30, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +1.19% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -0.82%, which points to modest SPX (S & P 500)/market strength early on Friday 7-31-09.

Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).

Looking at SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) five day intraday candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, today 7-30's substantial strength looks like a final Wave 5 type of blowoff spike move, that was confirmed by well above average volume.

Since 7-8-09, when the current Short Term Upcycle began, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has done an extremely parabolic Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (could also still be Wave 3 up of the Short Term Upcycle since 7-8-09, but, it appears to be Wave 5 peaking), with Wave 5 up in progress (might have peaked today 7-30-09) since very early on Friday 7-17-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The Wave 2 and Wave 4 down corrections were very shallow and very brief.

The huge SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) spike move in effect for the past two+ weeks jives with important peaking action, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.

There may be clear signs after an important SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) cycle high occurs, such as a very sharp decline shortly after SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaks, that may leave a very bearish spike/candle, and, a large bearish breakaway upside gap may occur.

Fed Credit spiked a massive +$34.247 Billion in the W/E 7-15 and the market spikes big time, coincidence? NO. See http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Also, it's easier to spike the market near an important cycle high, when a cycle's strength is near a maximum point.

Data and indicators can only be evaluated after (are secondary to) understanding SPX's (or whatever index, stock or commodity you're trading or investing in) cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps, which are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system.

Gaps tend to provide a roadmap for where an index/stock/commodity will go, when used in concert with cycles and Elliott Wave patterns (basis/crux of Trade the Cycles). In the upcoming Short Term Wave A Downcycle SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably fill some or all of the 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 downside gaps.

I'll be looking to trade ultra short via ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc this week/soon.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

Fed Credit fell -$611 Million in the W/E 7-29, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. (Following the money, Fed and Consumer Credit data, and, insider trading activity, is obviously very important).

Federal Reserve bank credit fell -$611 Million in the week/five day period 7-29-09, it fell -$1.087 Billion in the week/five day period 7-22-09, it spiked a massive +$34.247 Billion in the week/five day period ending 7-15-09, it fell by -$9.453 Billion in the week/five day period ending 7-8-09, it fell by -$9.645 Billion in the week/five day period ending 7-1-09, it collapsed a massive -$58.524 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-24, it rose a massive +$29.406 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-17, but, it collapsed a massive -$40.529 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-10, after falling -$8.213 Billion in the week/five day period ending 6-3, and, after collapsing a humongous -$90.672 Billion in the week/five day period ending 5-27, which is probably an indication of an imminent very large stock market decline, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. I'm back to watching weekly (daily maybe also) Fed Credit data like a hawk, like I used to do.

Weekly Fed Credit data is very important, because, it provides a good idea of how much ammo the large and small program traders have.

SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill downside gaps at 975.15 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, and 811.08 in the near future. There are more downside gaps at 768.54, and, at 676.53.

Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

"The SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (Since 10-11-07) Elliott Wave Count," see http://bit.ly/1036Td (The Bear lives).

SPX's (S & P 500) bearish double top in March 2000/October 2007 is the bull market since 1932 peaking, which is the main problem that the US and the world faces, see http://bit.ly/FypjN.

Keep in mind that cycles plus the Elliott Wave count and gaps are the primary market timing consideration. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Indicators, data, tools, etc are used/evaluated after knowing what the cycles, Elliott Wave count, and gaps are.

However, an exception to the above is that candlestick charts help to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.

See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.

Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +0.05% versus the S & P 500 today/on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.

The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.

The longer the lag time between when the super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator "kicks in," from when it originally became extremely bearish, the more important the cycle high tends to be, because, the larger, longer, more important the upcycle or downcycle, the longer the lag time tends to be before an important indicator "kicks in," and, the expected action (severe weakness in this case) begins.

I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.21% versus the XOI today/on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.

Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 49.37.

SPX (S & P 500) has a bearish breakaway upside gap at 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.

Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.

The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 probably peaked on 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.

GDX/HUI/XAU's rollover upcycle since 4-17-09 peaked on 6-1-09 (GDX very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 44.55, 40.92, 39.41 (filled), 38.31 (filled)), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

Wave 5/Wave C down of the huge GDX/HUI/XAU Monthly Wave A Downcycle since 6-1-09 BOTTOMED on 7-13-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The Monthly/Short Term (countertrend) Wave B/Wave 2 Upcycle since 7-13-09, that PEAKED on Thursday 7-23-09 (GDX 39.85, 38.35 (filled) large bearish breakaway upside gaps), was an opportunity to take profits/exit. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The strength from 4-17-09 to 6-1-09 was peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.

GDX/HUI/XAU are in a Short Term/Monthly Wave C/Wave 3 Downcycle since 7-23-09 (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -1.76% versus the XAU today/on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1, -0.23% on 6-30, -0.29% on 6-29, +0.24% on 6-26, -1.58% on 6-25, -1.24% on 6-24, -0.42% on 6-23, +2.67% on 6-22, -1.85% on 6-19, +0.24% on 6-18, +0.80% on 6-17, +0.25% on 6-16, +0.95% on 6-15, -0.12% on 6-12, -0.48% on 6-11, -0.30% on 6-10, +0.49% on 6-9, -0.67% on 6-8, -1.19% on 6-5, -1.02% on 6-4, +1.05% on 6-3, -1.07% on 6-2, -0.59% on 6-1) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 6-1-09, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.

The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at bearish near very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at modestly bullish (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX) today 7-30-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 37.18, 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 41.14 (filled), 39.11 (filled), 39.37, 38.45, and TBD.

GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 44.55, 43.51, 40.92, 39.85, 38.35 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 47.44, 44.11, 41.58, 40.34 (filled).

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 26 weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI