The XAU's Short Term Wave B Of Wave C Appears To Have Peaked

The XAU's short term Wave B of Wave C since 12-18-07 (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) appears to have peaked, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Today's cycle high at 176.37 is a bearish slightly lower countertrend Wave B double top with Friday's cycle high at 176.42. If the XAU fills the downside gap at 168.95, then the short term Wave B of Wave C since 12-18-07 has very likely peaked, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

The fact that the XAU couldn't stage a meaningful rally today after the early plunge, despite the very bullish NEM Lead Indicator (+1.38% versus the XAU today/12-31-07), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, is obviously a bearish sign.

In the next session or two I'll be looking to short HUI/XAU via shorting the Gold Miners ETF GDX.

Once HUI/XAU do a very sharp -3%+ very short term 1-2 day Wave A type downcycle I'l look to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, in a countertrend Wave B rebound/very short term 1-2 day upcycle, that obviously must peak below the previous cycle high, otherwise it wouldn't be a countertrend Wave B upcycle. I'll also look for the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators to be bearish or at least near neutral/not overly bullish on an intraday basis (intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem).

The NEM Lead Indicator is mostly very bearish recently, at a very bullish +1.38% versus the XAU today/12-31, at a bearish -0.90% versus the XAU on 12-28, was a very bearish -1.15% on 12-27, was a very bearish -1.12% on 12-26, was a very bearish -1.10% on 12-24, was a very bearish -1.08% on 12-21, -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.45% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-31, was +0.50% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-28, was +0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-27, was a bearish -0.82% on 12-26, +0.29% on 12-24, -0.92% on 12-21, -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.

NDX (NASDAQ 100) is doing a very short term Wave A downcycle since 12-26-07, that's the first downcycle of the final Wave C of Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle since late October (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. So, I may short NDX (via the Ultra Short NDX ETF QID) during a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle in the next session or two.

The beauty of gaps is that, usually/reliably, important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.

NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) Wave A intermediate term cycle low target range of 1820-1840 was very straightforward/easy to derive. NDX's (NASDAQ 100) short term Wave C of Wave C/final intermediate term cycle (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since late October) low target range is 1820-1840 (1980.18 was the Wave A cycle low on 11-12-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), shortly after filling the final downside gap at 1846.09.

NDX’s Wave A of Wave C of Wave C should/might bottom at 1940-2020. NDX (NASDAQ 100) has downside gaps at 2111.77 (filled 12-27), 2069.68, 2031.00, 1989.36, 1982.16, 1960.20, 1899.24, 1846.09.

I have more work to do for HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX. I'll try to post that in the next day or two. NEM has downside gaps at 48.45 (filled 12-27/today), 47.39, 42.29, 41.52. So, NEM may fill all of those gaps, but I need to look at all (HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX) and derive good target(s). A few weeks ago, with the big day trade I did, I had to use NEM, because, that was the only available downside gap.

Given the Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, the fact that the US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005 (think any of the gold writers will point that fact out?), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, plus the very bearish NEM/WMT Lead Indicators recently (see NEM Lead Indicator 5 day chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem), and it's far too risky to trade gold aggressively or even modestly long now.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data Remains Bearish

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data remains bearish, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short (traded net short 12,456 gold futures and options contracts), trading a significant long position (added 8002 long gold futures and options contracts), correctly anticipating short term strength, but, continuing to go massively short (added 20,458 short gold futures and options contracts), as they've done in recent months.

So, the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is short term and long term bearish. Some significant gold strength this week wouldn't be surprising, but, it's very likely to be a great shorting opportunity.

The 5 day NEM Lead Indicator is an extremely bearish -5.35% versus the XAU, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 (note the strong follow through after bottoming and the bullish large inverse spike) after being in a Cyclical Bear Market for about two years/since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.

The Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html) provides a great picture of what's really going on in the gold sector, and, completely vindicates the "Trade the Cycles" market timing system. "Trade the Cycles" obviously didn't need to be vindicated, but, the Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007) provides a great picture of the reality of the gold sector versus all the goofy gold writer noise/nonsense out there.

As a long term investor all one needs to do is to draw trendlines/do very basic technical analysis and one can see that most gold writers are clowns and/or con artists when it comes to gold investing and trading.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

NDX's (NASDAQ 100) Very Short Term Downcycle Since Late Wednesday Probably Bottomed

NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) very short term downcycle since late Wednesday (entered Wave C of Wave C of the Wave A intermediate term downcycle since late October) probably bottomed at mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENDX&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. So, it looks like I'll be shorting NDX (via the Ultra Short NDX ETF QID) during a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle in the next session or two.

The XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Wave B of Wave C (HUI is Wave B of Wave C of Wave C) is still rising, but, is rolling over/flattening out, and, should soon break down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Once HUI/XAU do a very sharp -3%+ very short term 1-2 day Wave A type downcycle I'l look to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, in a countertrend Wave B rebound/very short term 1-2 day upcycle, that obviously must peak below the previous cycle high, otherwise it wouldn't be a countertrend Wave B upcycle. I'll also look for the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators to be bearish or at least near neutral/not overly bullish.

The NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish recently, at a bearish -0.90% versus the XAU today/on 12-28, was a very bearish -1.15% versus the XAU on 12-27, was a very bearish -1.12% on 12-26, was a very bearish -1.10% on 12-24, was a very bearish -1.08% on 12-21, -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.

The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.50% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-28 (jives with an NDX countertrend rebound the next session or two, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), was +0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-27, was a bearish -0.82% on 12-26, +0.29% on 12-24, -0.92% on 12-21, -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.

The beauty of gaps is that, usually/reliably, important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.

NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) Wave A intermediate term cycle low target range of 1820-1840 was very straightforward/easy to derive. NDX's (NASDAQ 100) short term Wave C of Wave C/final intermediate term cycle (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since late October) low target range is 1820-1840 (1980.18 was the Wave A cycle low on 11-12-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), shortly after filling the final downside gap at 1846.09.

NDX’s Wave A of Wave C of Wave C should/might bottom at 1940-2020. NDX (NASDAQ 100) has downside gaps at 2111.77 (filled 12-27), 2069.68, 2031.00, 1989.36, 1982.16, 1960.20, 1899.24, 1846.09.

I have more work to do for HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX. I'll try to post that in the next day or two. NEM has downside gaps at 48.45 (filled 12-27/today), 47.39, 42.29, 41.52. So, NEM may fill all of those gaps, but I need to look at all (HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX) and derive good target(s). A few weeks ago, with the big day trade I did, I had to use NEM, because, that was the only available downside gap.

Given the Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, the fact that the US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005 (think any of the gold writers will point that fact out?), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, plus the very bearish NEM/WMT Lead Indicators recently (see NEM Lead Indicator 5 day chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem), and it's far too risky to trade gold aggressively or even modestly long now.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU's Short Term Wave B Of Wave C Has Probably Peaked

NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU's short term Wave B of Wave C (began on 12-18-07) has probably peaked, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

NDX/XAU both began very short term downcycles late yesterday (HUI early today), which is a very short term Wave A down type move. In the next session or two, when NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU do a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle, that obviously should bottom below yesterday's NDX/XAU cycle highs (today's cycle high for HUI), I'll look to short NDX via the Ultra Short NDX ETF QID, and, I'll look to short HUI/XAU via shorting GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.

The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators are very bearish short term, as the data below reveals. The WMT Lead Indicator was bearish for most of today's session, but turned bullish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. It looks like a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle will begin at some point early tomorrow for NDX/HUI/XAU.

The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-27, was a bearish -0.82% on 12-26, +0.29% on 12-24, -0.92% on 12-21, -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.15% versus the XAU today/on 12-27, was -1.12% on 12-26, -1.10% on 12-24, -1.08% on 12-21, -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.

NDX's important recent cycle highs/lows are labeled at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and, the XAU's are at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note that today's candles are dark, indicating a close below the open, which often occurs when a downcycle has begun.

NEM and NDX downside gap filling action began today, which is probably a sign that a short term downcycle has begun. The beauty of gaps is that, usually/reliably, important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.

NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) intermediate term cycle low target range of 1820-1840 was very straightforward/easy to derive, see the next paragraph.

NDX's (NASDAQ 100) short term Wave C of Wave C/final intermediate term cycle (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since late October) low target range is 1820-1840 (1980.18 was the Wave A cycle low on 11-12-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), shortly after filling the final downside gap at 1846.09. NDX’s Wave A of Wave C of Wave C should/might bottom at 1940-2020. NDX (NASDAQ 100) has downside gaps at 2111.77 (filled 12-27/today), 2069.68, 2031.00, 1989.36, 1982.16, 1960.20, 1899.24, 1846.09.

I have more work to do for HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX. I'll try to post that in the next day or two. NEM has downside gaps at 48.45 (filled 12-27/today), 47.39, 42.29, 41.52. So, NEM may fill all of those gaps, but I need to look at all (HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX) and derive good target(s). A few weeks ago, with the big day trade I did, I had to use NEM, because, that was the only available downside gap.

If you doubt that HUI/XAU/gold are in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 11-7-07, consider the Euro gold's bearish long term double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, consider the fact that the US Dollar's Cyclical Bear Market since late 2005 probably bottomed in November 2007 (entered a Cyclical Bull Market), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/major-deflationary-factors-gold-wave-2.html, as well as the deflationary major economic/stock market downcycle.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.........Very Bearish WMT/NEM Lead Indicators

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.82% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-26, was a bullish +0.29% on 12-24, was a very bearish -0.92% on 12-21, was a very bearish -0.97% on 12-20, and, was -0.19% on 12-19.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.12% versus the XAU today/on 12-26, was a very bearish -1.10% versus the XAU on 12-24, was a very bearish -1.08% on 12-21, and, was -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.

I'm waiting for NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), HUI's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), the XAU's, and gold's short term upcycle since 12-18 to clearly break down, then I'll look to aggressively short an intraday/very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle (buy QID, the Ultra Short NDX ETF, and, short the GDX (Gold Miners) or GLD (gold) ETF).

One can see that NDX's peaks are rolling over/flattening out, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, NDX may have peaked today, or, if not, probably will tomorrow. Tomorrow is the Fed's punch spiking Thursday, when they nearly always add a massive amount of credit that fuels index fund program traders, so, there might be more upside tomorrow.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

................Not A Gold Breakout/Buy Signal

Gold broke out of it's triangle formation since 11-7-07's likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull market cycle high at $848 today (see gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld), and, it appears to be a bullish breakout. Wrong! GLD needs to follow through by at least 2% (would have to at least approach 83), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Also, one wants to see at least two hours of follow through timewise. A spike at the open followed by weakness can't be a buy signal. If a breakout/buy signal occurs there should be significant follow through pricewise and timewise.

I imagine that Jack Chan, one of the few gold writers I respect as far as market timing goes (though he doesn't understand cycles/Elliott Wave/gaps from what I've seen, he has a disciplined conscientious approach), will consider today a buy signal, see http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan122407.html. Jack's approach could be on a buy signal during a very risky countertrend Wave B upcycle. One might be aggressively long and get caught in a vicious Wave C decline while waiting for a sell signal. In other words, one might buy a downtrend (might catch a falling knife) using Jack's approach.

Even if gold did hit a 2% follow through buy signal I'd probably ignore it. Gold might put in a double top with 11-7-07's likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $848, or, might even put in a modestly higher cycle high, since gold tends to lag HUI/XAU at important cycle highs (bottomed in April 2001, about six months after HUI/XAU, and, an important cycle high occurred in April 2004, 3-4 months after HUI/XAU), but, it's too risky to trade gold aggressively long now.

Given the Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, the fact that the US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005 (think any of the gold writers will point that fact out?), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, plus the very bearish NEM/WMT Lead Indicators recently (see NEM Lead Indicator 5 day chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem), and it's far too risky to trade gold aggressively or even modestly long now.

I'm waiting for NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU/gold's short term upcycle since 12-18 to clearly break down, then I'll look to aggressively short an intraday/very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle (buy QID, the Ultra Short NDX ETF, and, short the GDX (Gold Miners) or GLD (gold) ETF).

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays all.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

.........Very Bearish WMT/NEM Lead Indicators

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.29% versus SPX (S & P 500) today 12-24, but, turned bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The previous three sessions were a very bearish -0.92% on 12-21, a very bearish -0.97% on 12-20, and, -0.19% on 12-19.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.10% versus the XAU today/on 12-24 and was -1.08% on 12-21, and, was -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

.........NDX (NASDAQ 100) Elliott Wave Count

See http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx. From July 2006 to late October 2007 (see chart 2 at link) NDX (NASDAQ 100) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up third/final Wave 5 long term upcycle (likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle since October 2002). From late October to early/mid November NDX (NASDAQ 100) did a Wave A downcycle. From early/mid November to December 11's Fed rate decision NDX (NASDAQ 100) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up countertrend Wave B upcycle.

Then Wave A of Wave C bottomed on Tuesday 12-18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Looking at the 5 day intraday chart (see link above in this paragraph) NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) Wave B of Wave C appears to be peaking based on the Elliott Wave count, and, Friday's and today's flat intraday action is what tends to occur near important cycle highs. Also, today's spike at the open (began late Friday) looks like a final Wave 5 spike.

Additionally, the WMT Lead Indicator has been very bearish the past two sessions, at -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-21 and at -0.97% on 12-20. Plus, Cisco Systems (CSCO) chart is ugly (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?csco), it's Elliott Wave count points to CSCO/NDX weakness, it recently made a large bearish breakaway gap to the downside, and, it's been putting in many large bearish spikes on the daily candles.

So, I'm looking to aggressively short NDX (NASDAQ 100) via the ultra short ETF QID (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid), and, I'm looking to aggressively short gold via shorting the gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld).

For NDX (NASDAQ 100) I'm waiting for a sharp intraday Wave A down type move, then I'll look to go short during an intraday Wave B rebound. I'm simply waiting for the short term upcycle since 12-18 to clearly break down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

For gold I'm waiting for it's triangle formation since 11-7-07's likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $848 to break down, then I'll look to short an intraday countertrend Wave B rebound, see gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

Euro Gold Bearish Long Term Double Top And The US Dollar Has Probably Bottomed

If you doubt that HUI/XAU/gold are in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 11-7-07 consider the Euro gold's bearish long term double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, consider the fact that the US Dollar's Cyclical Bear Market since late 2005 probably bottomed in November 2007 (entered a Cyclical Bull Market), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/major-deflationary-factors-gold-wave-2.html, as well as the deflationary major economic/stock market downcycle.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Important HUI/XAU/Gold Update And Very Bearish WMT/NEM Lead Indicators (Updated - See Paragraph 4)

Most gold writers think HUI/XAU/gold have bottomed and that the "correction" is over. However, HUI/XAU/gold put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, which means that HUI/XAU/gold are probably in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market now.

HUI/XAU might have, but probably didn't, put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows on Tuesday 12-17, because, they didn't do Wave C of the short term Wave C yet (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07).

Note in HUI's (or the XAU's) chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) that, in the short term Wave A downcycle that occurred in November, there was a two session Wave B upcycle, with a large bearish spike occurring on the second day's candle. In the short term downcycle from 12-11-07 until 12-17-07 HUI/XAU didn't do a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, which means that a short term Wave C downcycle probably lies ahead for HUI/XAU, in which their Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07 will bottom.

Update: It's much easier to see the Elliott Wave count by looking at the XAU's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU clearly looks like it's in Wave B of the short term Wave C since 12-11-07. Therefore, the XAU's and HUI's Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07 probably didn't bottom yet. HUI's (long) short term Wave C began in late November.

HUI/XAU's Wave A intermediate term downcycle (since 11-7-07) not having bottomed yet jives with the expected bearish gold breakdown/mini crash below it's triangle formation, in effect since the 11-7-07 likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, see gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.

Note that GLD rose to it's intermediate term downcycle trendline today, which obviously points to weakness on Monday. I'll be looking to short GLD on Monday.
Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-21, and, was a very bearish -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.08% versus the XAU today/on 12-21, and, was -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.

I'll be looking to day trade SPX or NDX short on Monday (short session I think, so I may not) via the SDS or QID Ultra Short ETFs.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX (S & P 500), WMT, HUI, etc Did Wave 5 Spikes Today

SPX (S & P 500), WMT, HUI, etc did Wave 5 spikes today (SPX upcycle since Tuesday), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Sometimes after it looks like a stock or index has peaked a large final Wave 5 blowoff spike (in this case on the 5 day intraday chart, intraday chart's Elliott Wave count at link above) will occur, also, gap filling occurred at today's open (SPX (S & P 500) filled upside gap at 1467.95).

The short term bearish outlook for SPX/the market jives with the bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) yesterday/on 12-20, and, it's bearish again today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

I'm still looking to do the same trades discussed yesterday (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/spx-s-p-500-bearish-breakaway-gap-at.html), and, I'm obviously looking for a sharp pullback.

When doing the Elliott Wave count one first uses the daily candlestick chart (SPX's http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), then the Elliott Wave count is finetuned using the five day (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) and possibly (if necessary) also the one day intraday candlestick chart, in order to arrive at a good entry or exit point.

Since putting in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07 SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) did a Wave A intermediate term downcycle that bottomed in late November, then a countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle peaked on 12-11-07 at the time of the Fed's rate decision, so, SPX is in a Wave C intermediate term downcycle now, and, Wave 3 of a short term Wave B is peaking probably today.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

.......Bearish NEM And WMT Lead Indicators

The NEM Lead Indicator and especially the WMT Lead Indicator were bearish today, at a slightly bearish -0.18% versus the XAU today/on 12-20 for NEM (-0.26% on 12-19), and, at a very bearish -0.97% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-20 for WMT/Walmart (-0.19% on 12-19).

They became more bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

SPX (S & P 500) Bearish Breakaway Gap At 1467.95 And The WMT Lead Indicator Is Bearish Today

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) has a bearish breakaway gap at 1467.95 from Monday's open that it failed to fill (hence bearish breakaway gap), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

From mid session Tuesday 12-18 into early Wednesday SPX did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, then did a Wave A down that bottomed late Wednesday 12-19/yesterday, followed by a Wave B up that peaked just after today's/12-20 open, and, is now in Wave B of Wave C, and, should soon enter the final Wave C of Wave C (on the Yahoo 5 day intraday chart). This jives with today's bearish WMT Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Since SPX's (S & P 500) Wave A of Wave C (on the daily chart, see next link) appears to have bottomed on Monday it's not a good short right now, since there isn't much downside if SPX bottomed on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Gold will be a good short once it breaks down below it's triangle formation in effect since the 11-7-07 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $848, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold.

I'm looking to trade NEM's short term Wave 1 upcycle that probably began Tuesday 12-18 at 46.25 (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), and, I'm looking to trade WMT's short term Wave 5 upcycle that probably began Tuesday 12-18 at 46.87 (see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt).
I'm waiting to go long because of the expected market/SPX weakness (discussed in the first two paragraphs).

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Based On The Intraday Elliott Wave Count And The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators I Stayed In Cash

Based on the intraday Elliott Wave count and the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators I stayed in cash today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Both NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) and WMT (Walmart, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) look like they need to do an intraday Wave C downcycle tomorrow, and, should take out today's cycle lows.

This jives with today's modestly bearish NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, at -0.26% versus the XAU today/on 12-19 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.19% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-19 for the WMT Lead Indicator.

The fact that both lead indicators became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, jives with the expected intraday Wave C decline early tomorrow. One can use the intraday and daily lead indicator charts to see if they jive with the Elliott Wave count.

I'm looking to trade NEM's short term Wave 1 upcycle that probably began yesterday at 46.25, and, I'm looking to trade WMT's short term Wave 5 upcycle that probably began yesterday at 46.87, as discussed yesterday, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/reliable-lead-indicators-nem-and-wmt.html.

Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT appear to have bottomed yesterday 12-18, note the bullish large inverse spikes on the candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT are probably leading to the upside, since the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators turned very bullish the prior two days:

NEM Lead Indicator = +0.52% versus the XAU on 12-18 and +1.47% on 12-17, and, the WMT Lead Indicator = +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-18 and +1.92% on 12-17 (At -0.26% versus the XAU today/on 12-19 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.19% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-19 for the WMT Lead Indicator).

NEM probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 46.25 yesterday/12-18 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), which is a bullish double bottom with 12-17's cycle low at 46.28. It's prudent to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 multi day upcycle/2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading NEM aggressively long.

NEM put in a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 37.91 in June 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, NEM is a gold/metals stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. They might have put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows yesterday.

Gold is in Wave C of Wave C since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle high on 11-7-07, see GLD ETF at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld. Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside. I'm looking to short gold via shorting the GLD ETF.

NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) is in the process of putting in a Wave A of Wave C cycle low (probably did yesterday), for the intermediate term downcycle since late October. Wave A bottomed in early November. The countertrend Wave B peaked in early/mid December, at the time of Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision (note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern), so, Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle (since late October) has been in effect since Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision. Some time in the next week or so there should be a good opportunity to short NDX/catch Wave C of Wave C via the Ultra Short ETF QID, as NDX's Wave B of Wave C peaks.

SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.

Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.

The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Major Deflationary Factors = Gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market

Some major deflationary factors = gold Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. The real estate/mortgage/credit bust/crisis is very deflationary, and, the stock market Bear Market is another major deflationary factor, which spells big trouble for gold, which put in a bearish long term double top in Euro and Australian Dollar terms in November 2007 (likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high) with May 2006's cycle high, see http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html.

The scaremonger gold writers (mindless nitwits in too many cases, who lack analytical/personal integrity and/or are just clueless) continually discuss the very deflationary real estate/mortgage/credit bust/crisis as if it's bullish for gold, and, as if it's confined to the US. Some have goofy gold price targets of $1500 or more, as if those targets might be reached in a year or two. They might be reached in 10-15 years. http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold

The US Dollar's Cyclical Bear Market since late 2005 appears to have/probably bottomed in November 2007 at 74.48 (coinciding with Gold's Bull Market peaking), note the bullish large inverse spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.

One good thing about the gold bear market is that the game is over for the mindless gold nitwits and cockroaches who infest the internet.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Reliable Lead Indicators NEM And WMT Appear To Have Bottomed

Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT appear to have bottomed today, note the bullish large inverse spikes on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT are probably leading to the upside, since the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators turned very bullish the past two days:

NEM Lead Indicator = +0.52% versus the XAU today/on 12-18 and +1.47% on 12-17, and, the WMT Lead Indicator = +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-18 and +1.92% on 12-17.

NEM probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 46.25 today (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), which is a bullish double bottom with yesterday's cycle low at 46.28. It's prudent to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 multi day upcycle/2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading NEM aggressively long.

NEM put in a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 37.91 in June 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, NEM is a gold/metals stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market.

NEM looks like it'll do an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. If so, I'll be looking to/might go long NEM (trade the short term Wave 1), if the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish when NEM bottoms.

WMT probably put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low today, for the minor intermediate term upcycle since early November, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT did an intraday Wave A down near session's end today. Once WMT completes an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle early tomorrow I'll be looking to/might go long WMT (trade the short term Wave 5), if the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish when WMT bottoms, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. They might have put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows today.

Gold is in Wave C of Wave C since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle high on 11-7-07, see GLD ETF at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld. Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside. I'm looking to short gold via shorting the GLD ETF.

Gold's bearish picture is much easier to see in the charts in Euro and Australian Dollar terms (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), since gold in those stronger currencies put in a countertrend Wave B bearish double top in early November with the 5-11-06 cycle highs (the November 2007 cycle high is modestly higher than May 2006's, but, the bearish double top is very similar to a Wave B cycle high, which is why I called it a Wave B cycle high, the real world isn't an exact science), versus gold in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms peaking in rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.

NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) is in the process of putting in a Wave A of Wave C cycle low (probably did today), for the intermediate term downcycle since late October. Wave A bottomed in early November. The countertrend Wave B peaked in early/mid December, at the time of Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision (note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern), so, Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle (since late October) has been in effect since Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision. Some time in the next week or so there should be a good opportunity to short NDX/catch Wave C of Wave C via the Ultra Short ETF QID, as NDX's Wave B of Wave C peaks.

SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.

Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.

The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

HUI/XAU Are Approaching A Wave A Intermediate Term Cycle Low

HUI/XAU are approaching a Wave A intermediate term cycle low, since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The important downside gap I was watching today was the one for reliable lead indicator NEM at 46.44, which got filled today, and, NEM bottomed at 46.28. Once NEM filled 46.44 that was a sign to look to cover GDX, the Gold Miners ETF that closely tracks HUI. Gaps are very important, because, important cycle highs/lows tend to/reliably occur shortly after gaps get filled. They provide targets (in this case timing, since I didn't have a downside gap for GDX) for when to exit a trade.

My downside target for NEM is 46. There were no downside gaps to use for GDX, HUI, or the XAU today. NEM has a large bearish spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

There's likely to be a bit more downside tomorrow, but, I wouldn't chase it given today's very bullish lead indicators, at +1.47% versus the XAU today/on 12-17 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at +1.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-17 for the WMT Lead Indicator.

However, gold appears to be lagging HUI/XAU, having done what appears to be a Wave A type downcycle late in the session/near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Early tomorrow, if I'm convinced that gold is doing a countertrend Wave B type rebound/upcycle, I'll look to short GLD, the gold ETF. Since gold tends to lag HUI/XAU, sometimes one can short GLD shortly after having shorted and (maybe) exited GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.

Also, tomorrow or Wednesday I may go long NEM, which is in the process of putting in a Wave 4 intermediate term cycle low (target 46, which was based on the downside gap at 46.44 that got filled today). NEM put in a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 37.91 in June 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.

NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) is in the process of putting in a Wave A of Wave C cycle low, for the intermediate term downcycle since late October. Wave A bottomed in early November. The countertrend Wave B peaked in early/mid December, at the time of last Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision (note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern), so, Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle (since late October) has been in effect since last Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision. Some time in the next week or so there should be a good opportunity to short NDX/catch Wave C of Wave C via the Ultra Short ETF QID, as NDX's Wave B of Wave C peaks.

SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.

Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.

The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Weak Cycles, XAU Implied Volatility And the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators Point To Likely Severe HUI/XAU/Gold Weakness On Monday

Weak cycles, XAU Implied Volatility, and the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators point to likely severe HUI/XAU/Gold weakness on Monday:

First of all, HUI/XAU are in the final Wave C (Wave C began in late November for HUI and last Tuesday for the XAU) decline of the Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

HUI appears to be in Wave A of Wave C of Wave C (the XAU's in Wave A of Wave C), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, since this downcycle since late Tuesday's Fed rate decision hasn't had a 1 to 3 day countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle. So, there should be another shorting opportunity after this one.

Secondly, XAU Implied Volatility points to likely severe weakness on Monday, since it fell very sharply (-3.31%) on Friday, to 38.860 from 40.190 on Thursday, despite a -1.61% decline in the XAU (XAU Implied Volatility/fear normally rises in response to weakness), which is a very sharp +4.92% rise in complacency that points to likely severe XAU weakness on Monday (-3.31% + -1.61% = -4.92% decline in the XAU wall of worry = a very sharp +4.92% rise in complacency).

Since HUI/XAU are in the final Wave C (Wave C began in late November for HUI and last Tuesday for the XAU) decline/downcycle of the Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) they are very weak cyclewise, which means that the severe weakness indicated by XAU Implied Volatility could be unusually severe, due to the very weak picture cyclewise right now.

Also, both lead indicators were bearish on Friday, though not overly so. The NEM Lead Indicator was -0.46% versus the XAU on 12-14 and the WMT Lead Indicator was -0.08% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-14.

Additionally, the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is bearish again in the latest report (5 day period ending 12-11-07), because, the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.

Looking at the 5 day intraday charts of HUI and gold (GLD, gold ETF) it looks like there might be a good shorting opportunity/entry point on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, unless a sharp decline occurs at the open, and, even if there is a sharp decline at the open there still may be a shorting opportunity, one has to watch the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators on an intraday basis, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Gold's bearish picture is much easier to see in the charts in Euro and Australian Dollar terms (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), since gold in those stronger currencies put in a countertrend Wave B bearish double top in early November with the 5-11-06 cycle highs (the November 2007 cycle high might be modestly higher than May 2006's, but, the bearish double top is very similar to a Wave B cycle high, which is why I called it a Wave B cycle high), versus gold in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms peaking in rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 is at $500ish in US Dollar terms right now, so, gold should bottom at $490 to $520 in the next year or so.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.

Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.

The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

..............Inflation Data Spooks The Market

CPI and PPI data kept the market in a funk today, but, NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) might have put in a bullish slightly lower double bottom cycle low today with Wednesday's cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.08% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-14. I've been waiting for a sharp very short term 1 to 2 day countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle, in which I'm looking to short NDX again via the Ultra Short ETF QID.

Despite yesterday's very bullish NEM Lead Indicator, at +1.93% versus the XAU (-0.46% today/12-14), HUI fell -2.26% today (WMT Lead Indicator was only +0.09% versus SPX yesterday though, the NEM Lead Indicator isn't necessarily a day ahead indicator (cycles are the most important factor), and, HUI is in a short term Wave C downcycle), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c and see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

It looks like there might be one more very short term Wave C downcycle before HUI hits a Wave A intermediate term cycle low. So, I might short HUI again next week via shorting GDX. I'll wait for a sharp very short term 1 to 2/maybe 3 day countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle before (if I decide to) going short.

The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is bearish again in the latest report (5 day period ending 12-11-07), because, the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.

Some rockets I'm looking to trade are Spicy Pickle, SPKL.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spkl), Rite Aid, RAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rad), and, a few gold/metals penny stocks I'm watching/might trade also are Samex Mining, SMXMF.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?smxmf), and Aurelio, AULO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aulo).

SPKL.OB's intermediate term cycle low target range is 0.75 to 1.00. RAD's monthly cycle low target range is 3.40 to 3.60. SMXMF.OB might have bottomed at 0.50 today, but, given the gold Wave A intermediate term downcycle, waiting for the usual strong short term Wave 1 upcycle/buy signal makes sense. AULO looks like it still needs to do a short term Wave 5 upcycle, so, I'm waiting for it's technical picture to clear up.

Some I may bottom pick (I'll trade very modest positions) and some/maybe all I'll wait for the usual strong short term Wave 1 upcycle/buy signal, then I'll look to go long in a short term Wave 2 downcycle.

Since NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) appears to have put in a third/final Wave 5 and therefore monthly cycle high, for the cycle since early November (SPX's began in late November), versus SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) having put in a second/Wave 3 cycle high, I'm going to short NDX via QID instead of shorting SPX via SDS. I'm also looking to short HUI again (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) via shorting GDX.

SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.

Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.

The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Gold's Primary Trendline And Technical Picture Is Much Easier To See In Other Currencies

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 and technical picture is much easier to see in other strong currencies like the Euro and the Australian Dollar (than the US Dollar), see http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html.

The primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 doesn't include any cycle lows from 2006/2007, which is plainly obvious by looking at the Euro and the Australian Dollar gold charts. Also, note the bearish double tops in November 2007/May 2006, for gold in Euro and Australian Dollar terms.

Gold went parabolic from February 2004 to May 11, 2006 (+78% rise in US Dollar terms, http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html) and did so again from 8-16-07 to 11-7-07 (+30% rise in US Dollar terms), when a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at $848 in US Dollar terms. Gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaked in rollover mode (in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms) versus the 5-11-06 cycle high, along with HUI/XAU.

The parabolic rise from May 2004 to May 11, 2006 brought gold way above it's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html). The primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 doesn't include any cycle lows from 2006/2007.

Gold's bearish picture is much easier to see in the charts in Euro and Australian Dollar terms (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), since gold in those stronger currencies put in a countertrend Wave B bearish double top in early November with the 5-11-06 cycle highs, versus gold in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms peaking in rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.

Gold's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 is at $500ish in US Dollar terms right now, so, gold should bottom at $490 to $520 in the next year or so.

HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.

Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.

The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.........No Change From Yesterday's Update

I'm looking to short NDX (NASDAQ 100) again via QID and I'm looking to short HUI again via shorting GDX in the next day or two, as discussed yesterday, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/i-ended-up-day-trading-ndx-nasdaq-100.html.

Today was a weak session for most of the session, with a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound probably beginning late in the session (actually began yesterday, since NDX bottomed late yesterday, but, the intraday downtrend line wasn't broken until late today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.80% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-12 and was +0.09% on 12-13. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.71% versus the XAU on 12-12 and was a very bullish +1.93% on 12-13.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU