The S & P 500 (SPX) And WMT Completed A Very Short Term Elliott Wave 12345 Up Down Up Down Up Upcycle Today

The S & P 500 (SPX) completed a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle late today, that began late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Wave 1 peaked just after the open, Wave 3 peaked at mid session in rollover mode, and, Wave 5 peaked shortly before the close in rollover mode.

SPX entered a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle late today and will therefore probably be weak early on Tuesday. Today's late cycle high is probably Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx).

Reliable SPX/Market lead indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) appears to have entered a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle late today, about an hour before SPX, and, was in Wave C at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

WMT appears to be trying to fill yesterday's upside gap at 44.19, and, may do so on Tuesday or Wednesday. WMT has a downside gap created at today's open at 43.32 that appears to be a breakaway gap, but, it could get filled early on Tuesday.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.55% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday and was a bearish -0.40% today/on 8-31, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.98% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

I'm pretty much abandoning the rockets trading strategy for now, but, I may daytrade rockets or do very modest rocket trading. In a healthy market/economy the rockets trading strategy may work very well, but, one should still probably trade baskets of stocks in a sector or index to get a good risk/reward ratio, and, to smooth out the uncertainty involved in trading individual stocks.

Broad based market indexes and sector indexes have much more predictable cycles and Elliott Wave patterns than individual stocks, because, the "uncertainties" (upside and downside surprises) of stocks in a given index will have a strong tendency to cancel/smooth out the uncertainty of the individual stock components. There will obviously be both upside and downside surprises for components in any index, that will tend to cancel/smooth out the uncertainty of timing that index, relative to timing an individual stock.

The best way to trade aggressively long is to trade volatile ETFs or a high relative strength basket of stocks of a sector or index (low relative strength for short selling).

The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Since reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hasn't exceeded it's Wave 1 cycle high at 44.70 that occurred on 8-17, Thursday 8-23's cycle low at 43.03 wasn't a Wave 4 cycle low, which means that WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) is still in Wave 3, and, that SPX's countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-16 probably still has legs. It should peak below July's cycle high at 1555.90.

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher Wave 2 double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday 8-20 versus at 42.92 early on Thursday 8-16, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

I'll be looking to day trade the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO or some other ETF/stock early on Tuesday.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The WMT Lead Indicator Was A Very Bearish -1.55% Versus The S & P 500 (SPX) Today

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.55% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, it didn't improve much near session's end, so, I didn't go long SSO (Ultra Long SPX ETF) today.

I'm looking to trade Wave 3 of SPX's countertrend Wave B (since 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60). Wave 1 of Wave 3 peaked early today, followed by an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since the WMT Lead Indicator was so bearish today, the possibility exists that Wave B may have already peaked last Friday. Also, reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT made a big bearish gap down at today's open to 43.21 from yesterday's close at 44.19 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), so, that fact made me cautious also.

However, looking at WMT and SPX's Elliott Wave patterns today, both did an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, they appear to have bottomed late in the session. If so, I'll be looking to go long SSO (Ultra Long SPX ETF) early tomorrow.

I sold HOKU at 9.24 today versus a purchase price at 9.10. I'm pretty much abandoning the rockets trading strategy for now, but, I may daytrade rockets or do very modest rocket trading. In a healthy market/economy the rockets trading startegy may work very well, but, one should still probably trade baskets of stocks in a sector or index to get a good risk/reward ratio, and, to smooth out the uncertainty involved in trading individual stocks.

Broad based market indexes and sector indexes have much more predictable cycles and Elliott Wave patterns than individual stocks, because, the "uncertainties" (upside and downside surprises) of stocks in a given index will have a strong tendency to cancel/smooth out the uncertainty of the individual stock components. There will obviously be both upside and downside surprises in any index, that will tend to cancel/smooth out the uncertainty of timing that index, relative to timing an individual stock.

The best way to trade aggressively long is to trade volatile ETFs or a high relative strength basket of stocks of a sector or index (low relative strength for short selling).

The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Since reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hasn't exceeded it's Wave 1 cycle high at 44.70 that occurred on 8-17, Thursday 8-23's cycle low at 43.03 wasn't a Wave 4 cycle low, which means that WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) is still in Wave 3, and, that SPX's countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-16 probably still has legs. It should peak below July's cycle high at 1555.90.

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher Wave 2 double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday 8-20 versus at 42.92 early on Thursday 8-16, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

I'll be looking to day trade the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO or some other ETF/stock early on Friday.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX (S & P 500) Is In A Short Term Wave 3 Upcycle

As expected SPX (S & P 500) is now in a short term Wave 3 upcycle (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), of the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-16 at 1370.60, and, Wave 1 of Wave 3 may have peaked near session's end, because, SPX appears to have completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern that began late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Due to the large spike move near session's end, that was Wave 5 of a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and the fact that the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.37% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, early weakness (a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle is likely) is likely tomorrow.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.86% versus the XAU today.

The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Since reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hasn't exceeded it's Wave 1 cycle high at 44.70 that occurred on 8-17, Thursday 8-23's cycle low at 43.03 wasn't a Wave 4 cycle low, which means that WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) is still in Wave 3, and, that SPX's countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-16 probably still has legs. It should peak below July's cycle high at 1555.90.

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher Wave 2 double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday 8-20 versus at 42.92 early on Thursday 8-16, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

I'll be looking to day trade the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO or some other ETF/stock early on Thuresday.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX (S & P 500) Appears To Be Doing A Short Term Wave 2 Downcycle

SPX (S & P 500) appears to be doing a short term Wave 2 downcycle (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), of the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-16 at 1370.60, and, it may have bottomed near session's end, because, SPX appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern that began yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Yesterday Waves A and B of the short term Wave 2 downcycle occurred, and, SPX ended the session in Wave C of the short term Wave 2 downcycle, which is doing a big Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that may have bottomed late today or should do so early tomorrow.

SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend Wave B upcycle at 1370.60 on Thursday 8-16 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx). The Elliott Wave count has cleared up (on the daily chart one can see a big short term Wave 1 that peaked just before Friday's close, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), and, SPX will probably enter a short term Wave 3 upcycle tomorrow, which jives with the the very bullish WMT Lead Indicator the past two days, at +1.39% versus SPX today/on 8-28 and at +1.03% on 8-27, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Since reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hasn't exceeded it's Wave 1 cycle high at 44.70 that occurred on 8-17 , Thursday's cycle low at 43.03 wasn't a Wave 4 cycle low, which means that WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) is still in Wave 3, and, that SPX's countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-16 probably still has legs. It should peak below July's cycle high at 1555.90.

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher Wave 2 double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday 8-20 versus at 42.92 early on Thursday 8-16, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

I'll be looking to day trade the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO or some other ETF/stock early on Wednesday.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The WMT Lead Indicator Was A Very Bullish +1.03% Versus SPX (S & P 500) Today

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.03% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, and, became much more bullish in the last few hours of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Also, SPX did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), that may have been a short term Wave 4 downcycle of the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began on 8-16 at 1370.60, and, it may have bottomed near session's end.

Due to the very bullish WMT Lead Indicator today and SPX's significant Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle today SPX (S & P 500) strength is likely early tomorrow, and, there may be a good opportunity/entry point to day trade long.

SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend Wave B upcycle at 1370.60 on Thursday 8-16 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx). The fact that this upcycle since 8-16 has been very parabolic/sharply rising, without the usual obvious zigzagging on the daily chart, is probably a sign that it's a countertrend Wave B upcycle/reflex rally, following the dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60, that triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The fact that this SPX (S & P 500) upcycle since 8-16 has been very parabolic/sharply rising makes the Elliott Wave count more difficult, but, it appears that SPX will enter a third/final short term Wave 5 upcycle tomorrow, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Since reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hasn't exceeded it's Wave 1 cycle high at 44.70 that occurred on 8-17 , Thursday's cycle low at 43.03 wasn't a Wave 4 cycle low, which means that WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) is still in Wave 3, and, that SPX's countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-16 probably still has legs. It should peak below July's cycle high at 1555.90.

The fact that the WMT Lead Indicator is bearish since SPX bottomed at 1370.60 mid session on 8-16 jives with SPX being in a countertrend Wave B upcycle (+1.03% versus SPX today/on 8-27, +0.17% on 8-24, -1.22% versus SPX on 8-23, at -1.06% on 8-22, at +0.14% on 8-21, at +0.26% on 8-20, at -2.48% on 8-17, at +0.18% on 8-16).

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher Wave 2 double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday 8-20 versus at 42.92 early on Thursday 8-16, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

I'll be looking to day trade the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO or some other ETF/stock early on Tuesday.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish recently, at +0.41% versus the XAU today/on 8-27, at -0.81% versus the XAU on 8-24, at +0.57% versus the XAU on 8-23, at -2.57% versus the XAU on 8-22, at +0.45% versus the XAU on 8-21, at -2.04% versus the XAU on 8-20, and, at -1.82% on Friday 8-17.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Gold's Technical Analysis Is Pretty Basic Right Now, Even Without "Trade the Cycles"

Gold's technical analysis is pretty basic right now, even without using "Trade the Cycles," see charts 1 and 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD. In chart 1 at the link above one can see that gold's near term picture is clearly bearish, because, there is a nearly perfect bearish double top at $688.40 in late July and $688.10 in early August, below April's cycle high (Wave B cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06) at $698.

In chart 2 at the link above one can see that gold's long term picture is clearly bearish, because, gold has a downtrend since peaking at $730.40 on 5-11-06, which was a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high. Wave A down bottomed at $542.27 about a month later in June 2006, and, one knows that gold didn't bottom at it's primary multi year trendline (since April 2001) in June 2006, because, the primary multi year trendline would cut right through gold's chart in order to connect to $542.27, which can't happen with trendlines.

Gold's primary multi year trendline (since April 2001) is at $475ish right now, so, gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 should bottom in the $475-500 range in the next few months. Gold's near term and long term charts (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD) are so obviously bearish it's amazing that nearly all of the gold writers haven't discussed what's so obviously bearish. I haven't seen anyone discuss what I've discussed in this post and it's so obvious.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX And Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT's Elliott Wave Count

SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend Wave B upcycle at 1370.60 on Thursday 8-16 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx). The fact that this upcycle since 8-16 has been very parabolic/sharply rising, without the usual obvious zigzagging on the daily chart, is probably a sign that it's a countertrend Wave B upcycle/reflex rally, following the dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60, that triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The fact that this SPX (S & P 500) upcycle since 8-16 has been very parabolic/sharply rising makes the Elliott Wave count more difficult, but, it appears that SPX is in a big Wave 3 upcycle now, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Yesterday I said that reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a Wave 4 cycle low at 43.03, but, since WMT hasn't exceeded it's Wave 1 cycle high at 44.70 that occurred on 8-17 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), yesterday's cycle low at 43.03 wasn't a Wave 4 cycle low, which means that WMT is still in Wave 3, and, that SPX's countertrend Wave B upcycle since 8-16 probably still has legs. It should peak below July's cycle high at 1555.90. Today's cycle high was 1479.40 and the close was 1479.37.

The fact that the WMT Lead Indicator is very bearish since SPX bottomed at 1370.60 mid session on 8-16 jives with SPX being in a countertrend Wave B upcycle (+0.17% today/on 8-24, -1.22% versus SPX yesterday/on 8-23, at -1.06% on 8-22, at +0.14% on 8-21, at +0.26% on 8-20, at -2.48% on 8-17, at +0.18% on 8-16).

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher Wave 2 double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday 8-20 versus at 42.92 early on Thursday 8-16, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

I'll be looking to day trade the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO or some other ETF/stock early on Monday.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish recently, at -0.81% versus the XAU today/on 8-24, at +0.57% versus the XAU on 8-23, at -2.57% versus the XAU on 8-22, at +0.45% versus the XAU on 8-21, at -2.04% versus the XAU on 8-20, and, at -1.82% on Friday 8-17.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

...........An Alternate Elliott Wave SPX Count

I looked like a genius today, with SPX (S & P 500) peaking just after the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

My Elliott Wave count since SPX (S & P 500) entered a countertrend Wave B upcycle at 1370.60 on Thursday 8-16 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) has been that SPX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle that looked like it would peak early today. I now think that SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B upcycle alternatively may be in Wave 5 up, with Wave 3 peaking just after today's open and with Wave 4 down being today's weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Wave 1 peaked very early last Friday 8-17 when SPX had the very sharp 3 hour rally that began at 1370.60 mid session on Thursday 8-16.

Alternatively, SPX is in a big short term Wave 1 of a countertrend Wave B upcycle. It's impossible to tell right now which count is correct, but, it looks like a big short term Wave 1 upcycle on the daily chart, since there isn't the usual obvious zigzagging pattern on the daily chart, so, it's probably a big short term Wave 1 upcycle.

The fact that the WMT Lead Indicator is very bearish since SPX bottomed at 1370.60 mid session on 8-16 jives with SPX being in a countertrend Wave B upcycle (-1.22% versus SPX today/on 8-23, at -1.06% on 8-22, at +0.14% on 8-21, at +0.26% on 8-20, at -2.48% on 8-17, at +0.18% on 8-16).

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher Wave 2 double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday versus at 42.92 early on Thursday 8-16, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Today's late cycle low at 43.03 appears to be a Wave 4 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Looking at the intraday chart at the previous link, WMT appears to have bottomed at 43.03 late in the session today, because, it did a sharp intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle from 43.83 to 43.03, and, it has a large bullish inverse spike on the intraday chart at 43.03.

So, it looks like SPX (S & P 500) will be in Wave 5 of the countertrend Wave B upcycle, or, it could still be a big short term Wave 1 of Wave B (Wave B began at 1370.60 on Thursday 8-16, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) for the next day or two.

As discussed in a previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/extremely-important-5-follow-through.html) SPX's upcycle that began on Thursday 8-16 is probably/very likely to be a countertrend Wave B upcycle that will be similar to a monthly upcycle, because, an SPX Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

I'll be looking to day trade the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO or the Ultra Long Russell 2000 ETF UWM early tomorrow.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish recently (three of the past five days), at +0.57% versus the XAU today/on 8-23, at -2.57% versus the XAU yesterday, at +0.45% versus the XAU on 8-21, at -2.04% versus the XAU on 8-20, and, at -1.82% on Friday 8-17.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX's Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Will Probably Peak Early Tomorrow

SPX's (S & P 500) short term Wave 1 upcycle, that's been rolling over since early Friday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), appears like it will finally peak early tomorrow, based on the Elliott Wave count and today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -1.06% versus SPX (S & P 500), which became much more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

SPX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle of the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began last Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, is in Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle. Since early last Friday, when SPX entered Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1, SPX's uptrend has been very flat, so, the short term Wave 1 is peaking in rollover mode.

Since Wave A bottomed last Thursday SPX did an up down up down and entered Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The short term Wave 1 upcycle is peaking in rollover mode, after the brief very sharp rally/spike move, that lasted about 3 hours, from mid session Thursday until shortly after Friday's open.

As discussed in a previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/extremely-important-5-follow-through.html) SPX's upcycle that began last Thursday is probably/very likely to be a countertrend Wave B upcycle that will be similar to a monthly upcycle, because, an SPX Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

I'll be looking to buy the Ultra Short SPX ETF SDS and/or the Ultra Short Russell 2000 ETF TWM early tomorrow. There's also the UltraShort MidCap 400 ProShares ETF MZZ I might buy.

Because reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low at 42.96 on Monday versus at 42.92 early last Thursday, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, I'll probably just look to day trade tomorrow, and try to catch Wave A down of the short term Wave 2. Also, WMT has a bullish large inverse spike on Monday's, yesterday's, and today's candle.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish recently (three of the past four days), at -2.57% versus the XAU today, at +0.45% versus the XAU yesterday, at -2.04% versus the XAU on 8-20, and, at -1.82% on Friday 8-17.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX Is In A Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle That's Rolling Over

SPX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle of the countertrend Wave B upcycle that began last Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, is in Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle. Since early last Friday, when SPX entered Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1, SPX's uptrend has been very flat, so, the short term Wave 1 is peaking in rollover mode.

Since last Thursday SPX did an up down up down and entered Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The short term Wave 1 upcycle is peaking in rollover mode, after the brief very sharp rally/spike move, that lasted about 3 hours, from mid session Thursday until shortly after Friday's open.

The short term Wave 1 upcycle will probably peak tomorrow, which jives with the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -2.48% versus SPX on Friday, at +0.26% yesterday, and at +0.14% today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

As discussed in a previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/extremely-important-5-follow-through.html) SPX's upcycle that began last Thursday is probably/very likely to be a countertrend Wave B upcycle that will be similar to a monthly upcycle, because, an SPX Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low at 42.96 yesterday versus at 42.92 early last Thursday, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Also, there's a bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's and today's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish recently (two of the past three days), at +0.45% versus the XAU today, at -2.04% versus the XAU yesterday/on 8-20, and, at -1.82% on Friday 8-17.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

Tomorrow I may day trade SSO or UWM early on, then, if I'm convinced that SPX's short term Wave 1 upcycle has peaked, I'll look to effectively day trade short with SDS or TWM if there's enough time left in the session, and, I may hold a modest SDS or TWM position overnight.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......SPX Is In A Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle

SPX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle of a countertrend Wave B upcycle that began last Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, appears to be in Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle.

Since last Thursday SPX did an up down up down and entered Wave 5 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The short term Wave 1 upcycle is peaking in rollover mode, after the brief very sharp rally/spike move, that lasted about 3 hours, from mid session Thursday until shortly after Friday's open.

The short term Wave 1 upcycle will probably peak tomorrow, which jives with the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -2.48% versus SPX on Friday and at +0.26% today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

As discussed in the previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/extremely-important-5-follow-through.html) SPX's upcycle that began last Thursday is probably/very likely to be a countertrend Wave B upcycle that will be similar to a monthly upcycle, because, an SPX Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms, following the current Wave B, THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT put in a bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low at 42.96 today versus at 42.92 early last Thursday, which is a short term positive for the market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Also, there's a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle.

The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish the past two days at
-2.04% versus the XAU today/on 8-20 and at -1.82% on Friday 8-17.

I'm probably going to trade only index and sector ETFs for a few months, so, I'm not going to be discussing individual stocks, unless I trade a basket of stocks in a given sector, like I used to do in the previous Wave 1 HUI/XAU Cyclical Bull Market that ended on 5-11-06.

Tomorrow I may day trade SSO or UWM early on, then, if I'm convinced that SPX's short term Wave 1 upcycle has peaked, I'll look to effectively day trade short with SDS or TWM if there's enough time left in the session, and, I may hold a modest SDS or TWM position overnight.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

An Extremely Important 5% Follow Through Major Sell Signal Occurred For The S & P 500 (SPX)

An extremely important 5% follow through major sell signal has occurred for the S & P 500 (SPX), which indicates that SPX's Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 probably/very likely (can practically bet your life on it) peaked at 1555.90 in July 2007, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

This is obviously a huge very important sell signal. The major downcycle since July's cycle high at 1555.90 is probably NOT a correction (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx), it's very likely to be the first Wave A type downcycle of a new Cyclical Bear Market.

SPX's cycle low on Thursday is probably more like the equivalent of a monthly cycle low in terms of how long the upcycle will last (about 3-5 weeks, maybe less), and, this upcycle is very likely to be a countertrend Wave B upcycle of a very large Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle. This means that there's very likely to be another huge vicious downcycle in Wave C, once the current Wave B since last Thursday peaks in a few weeks.

Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday's cycle low is probably only Wave A downcycle.

After that vicious Wave C downcycle bottoms THEN a respectable lengthy multi month intermediate term upcycle should occur for SPX.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

............A Gold Bloodbath May Be Imminent

Gold stocks have crashed recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, so, gold should soon crash, since the stocks lead the metals (HUI/NEM/XAU began a Secular Bull Market in late 2000 versus April 2001 for gold and late 2001 for silver),
see gold charts at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold.

HUI's Wave B up of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 peaked at 372.20 in July, so, HUI is in Wave C of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, with Wave A of Wave C probably bottoming at 284.85 on Thursday. The final Wave C cycle low of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should bottom at 220ish, which is where it's multi year trendline since late 2000 is, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Gold's Wave A down of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006. Note that the Wave B uptrend that was in effect since the June 2006 has clearly broken down, and, gold clearly has a well established downtrend going back well over a year, to when the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $730.40 occurred on 5-11-06. This is a chart that's so obviously bearish (see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold), yet, I haven't seen a single bearish gold writer recently.

Gold's Wave B up of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 peaked at $698.00 in April, so, gold's now in the final Wave C downcycle, and, gold's primary multi year trendline since April 2001 is at $475ish now. In chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold one can see that a few years ago gold's primary multi year trendline was in the low $400s, because that's where gold was before it nearly doubled from 2004 until May 2006. Gold's multi year trendline didn't magically spike to $600+. Multi year/very long term/Secular Bull Market (about 8-20+ years) trendlines are relatively flat.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Reliable WMT Lead Indicator Was Very Bearish Today

The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was very bearish today at -2.48% versus SPX, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, it became more bearish toward session's end.

The reliable NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.82% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, and, it became more bearish toward session's end.

After SPX and reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hit an intermediate term cycle low (probably did yesterday, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) they need to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal. It's a good idea to wait for SPX/WMT to hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal before looking to trade long positions and hold them overnight.

In this treacherous market day trading a modest position or sitting on the sidelines makes a lot of sense, so, I won't be discussing trading stocks today. My focus/bread and butter is going to be trading indexes and sectors (more predictable) via ETFs instead of trading individual stocks. I'll probably also trade some modest individual stock positions.

After hitting a likely intermediate term cycle low at 42.92 early yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), probably leading SPX, which probably did so at mid session yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, they both did (much clearer on SPX's chart) a Wave 1 up, a Wave 2 down, a Wave 3 up that peaked shortly after today's open, then reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT spent most of the remainder of today's session in Wave 4 down (did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern), that appears to have bottomed before 3 pm well ahead of SPX, which will probably plunge early on Monday and do Wave C of the very short term Wave 4 downcycle.

So, reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT is probably in a very short term Wave 5 up, but, SPX appears to be doing a long Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in it's very short term Wave 4, with most of today's session probably being a countertrend Wave B type move (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), which jives with the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator today at -2.48% versus SPX. So, early on Monday it'll probably seem like the bad times are back.

WMT filled today's downside gap at 43.50 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), but, SPX will probably at least try to fill it's downside gap at 1,411.27 (created at today's open) early on Monday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=).

If SPX does fill it's downside gap at 1,411.27 early on Monday, it'll probably bottom shortly thereafter, so, keep that in mind. Often important cycle highs/lows will occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.

SPX and reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT appear to have hit an important and much needed intermediate term cycle low yesterday, with WMT possibly doing so just after the open at 42.92, probably leading to the upside, and, with SPX possibly bottoming at mid session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note the bullish very large inverse spike on yesterday's SPX candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.

I'm going to look to day trade SSO (Ultra Long SPX ETF, will probably try to fill today's downside gap at 82.95 on Monday) and/or maybe UWM (Ultra Long Russell 2000 ETF, will probably try to fill today's downside gap at 64.519 on Monday) on Monday, after likely early weakness/a Wave C of a very short term Wave 4 downcycle.

Fed credit for the five day period ending 8-15-07 rose a dramatic +$17.223 Billion (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/), and, Fed credit was a massive $17 Billion yesterday (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), on punch spiking Thursday, so, strong index related computer program buying is likely the next few days.

The fact that mortgage lender Countrywide, CFC, rallied dramatically off of it's session cycle low at 15.00 yesterday to close at 21.43 today is a sign that bankruptcy fears may be overblown, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cfc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

SPX's Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 appears to/may have peaked at 1555.90, which is the latest intermediate term cycle high, since the potential intermediate term cycle low that may have occurred today isn't too far above the previous one that occurred last March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets/volatile stocks obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The Fed Cut The Discount Rate By A Half Point

The economic landscape has clearly turned to deflation not inflation, so, the half point rate cut made a lot of sense, see http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070817/fed_interest_rates.html?.v=25. Here's some of the article, due to copyright I can't post the entire article:

"The decision means that the discount rate, the interest rate that the Fed charges to make direct loans to banks, will be lowered to 5.75 percent, down from 6.25 percent.

The Fed did not change its target for the more important federal funds rate, which has remained at 5.25 percent for more than a year. The move was not expected to have an immediate impact on consumer borrowing, however.

However, it has been infusing billions of dollars in money into the banking system over the past week to keep that rate from rising above the target level.
In premarket trading, U.S. stock futures reversed previous declines after the Fed's announcement.

Private economists praised the action by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues, saying it should help steady jittery markets although many expect a cut in the federal funds rate to follow.

"This is fine for temporary relief, but I think they will still have to cut the funds rate because the markets will still be turbulent," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

The move to cut the discount rate will not have a major impact on consumer interest rates in the way that cutting the federal funds rate triggers an immediate drop in banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans.

However, Friday's move was expected to help with a severe cash crunch facing many businesses, including mortgage companies, which are having trouble getting loans for short-term financing needs.

In a statement explaining the action, the Fed said that while incoming data suggest the economy is continuing to expand at a moderate pace, "the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably."

White House deputy press secretary Tony Fratto declined to comment on the announcement but said, "We have full confidence in the Federal Reserve on these issues and respect their independence."

The Fed said it was "monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets."

The Fed said that "financial market conditions have deteriorated and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward."

The cut in the discount rate was approved by the Fed's board, which controls this rate. However the policy statement policy announcement was approved unanimously by the Federal Open Market Committee, the larger group of Fed board members in Washington and Fed regional bank presidents who set the federal funds rate.

Economists saw that as a significant signal that the Fed stood ready to cut the funds rate, which has been at 5.25 percent since June 2006 when the Fed wrapped up a two-year rate tightening campaign aimed at slowing economic growth enough to keep inflation under control.

The discount rate covers only loans that the Fed makes directly to banks. By moving it to 5.75 percent, the Fed put it closer to the funds rate. The central bank also announced other technical changes to make it easier for banks to get discount loans, such as extending the time the credit will be supplied to up to 30 days."

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

SPX And Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Appear To Have Hit An Important And Much Needed Intermediate Term Cycle Low Today

SPX and reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT appear to have hit an important and much needed intermediate term cycle low today, with WMT possibly doing so just after the open, probably leading to the upside, and, with SPX possibly bottoming at mid session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note the bullish very large inverse spike on today's SPX candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.

After SPX and reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hit an intermediate term cycle low (probably did today, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) they need to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal.

After bottoming at mid session SPX did an intraday Wave 1 up followed by a Wave 2 down, and, was in Wave 3 up at session's end, that may have been peaking, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, after possibly some brief strength at the open, SPX is likely to do an intraday Wave 4 down followed by an intraday Wave 5 up, and, then an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intraday correction is likely to occur.

The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was very bullish during much of today's session, it was greater than +1.00% versus SPX much of the time, which correctly portended late session strength, but, it turned very bearish late in the session (gap narrowed dramatically), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, closed at a modestly bullish +0.18% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, which jives with SPX doing an intraday Wave 4 downcycle early tomorrow.

I'm going to look to day trade SSO (Ultra Long SPX ETF) or maybe UWM (Ultra Long Russell 2000 ETF) early tomorrow, after likely early weakness/an intraday Wave 4 downcycle .

Fed credit for the five day period ending 8-15-07 rose a dramatic +$17.223 Billion (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/), and, Fed credit was a massive $17 Billion today (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), on punch spiking Thursday, so, strong index related computer program buying is likely the next few days.

The fact that mortgage lender Countrywide, CFC, rallied dramatically off of it's session cycle low at 15.00 today to close at 18.95 is a sign that bankruptcy fears may be overblown, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cfc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

SPX's Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 appears to/may have peaked at 1555.90, which is the latest intermediate term cycle high, since the potential intermediate term cycle low that may have occurred today isn't too far above the previous one that occurred last March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.

The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish in recent sessions, at
+3.47% versus the XAU today/on 8-16, at +3.29% on 8-15, and, at +1.77% on 8-14.

In this treacherous market day trading a modest position or sitting on the sidelines makes a lot of sense, so, I won't be discussing trading stocks today.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets/volatile stocks obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU