WMT And SPX Are Trying To Establish Important Cycle Lows

WMT and SPX are trying to establish important cycle lows, with WMT trying to establish a monthly cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), and, with SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) trying to put in a Wave A cycle low of an intermediate term downcycle, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT may have put in a monthly cycle low at 45.73 on Friday (probably leading SPX, which may have hit a Wave A cycle low yesterday or today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's cycle low was 45.90 versus 45.80 yesterday. WMT will have to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that WMT has probably/very likely bottomed.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.71% versus SPX today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.81% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

Here's StockCharts response to my inquiry as to why their October 2006 cycle high for WMT is 51.47 versus 52.15 for Yahoo/ASK Research:

"Thanks for contacting us. On our site, we adjust all historical price data downward to reflect stock splits, dividend payments, and mutual fund distributions. Adjusting prices, in our opinion, better captures the true price movement, creates a plot more reflective of the security's price action over time, and so, provides superior charts for technical analysis. On other sites, they chart the raw data.

If you'd like, you can read a more detailed explanation on this page of our Web site:

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/mailbag/mailbag20000804.htmlThanks again for using StockCharts.com, StockCharts Supportsupport@stockcharts.comhttp://stockcharts.com"

My thoughts (right now anyway) on their response is that there HAS to be one convention for stock price data used for charting or otherwise. I'll have to see if I can figure out how they arrived at 51.47 for the October 2006 cycle high versus the "raw" data's 52.15, and, there were a number of other differing price data points. I believe that the "raw data" does adjust for dividends when a stock goes ex dividend, so, that shouldn't be different from StockCharts to other sites.

I strongly believe that, until proven otherwise, 52.15 is the important and real price for the WMT October 2006 cycle high. That was a Wave 3 intermediate term cycle high. I think StockCharts is barking up the wrong tree and potentially hurting investors traders with potentially misleading data, but, I'll do some research and put more thought into it.

There NEEDS to be one (accurate) standard for stock price data, and, beyond that, I think the raw data is what's real and necessary for investors/traders.

Until WMT hits a monthly cycle buy signal one should be cautious, so, I'm not going to discuss the trading stocks much today, other than to say that ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), JRCC (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc), and JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso) probably hit monthly/minor intermediate term cycle lows a few sessions ago based on their Elliott Wave count and the fact that they hit monthly cycle buy signals. Looking to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up probably makes sense if you plan to trade these.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

WMT May Have Put In A Monthly Cycle Low At 45.73 On Friday

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT may have put in a monthly cycle low at 45.73 on Friday (leading SPX, which appears to have hit a Wave A cycle low today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's cycle low was 45.80. WMT will have to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that WMT has probably/very likely bottomed.

SPX appears to have only hit a short term/Wave A cycle low today, since SPX's recent substantial decline appears to be Wave A down of an intermediate term downcycle, see annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.44% versus SPX today, and, it became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.28% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

Until WMT hits a monthly cycle buy signal, and, since the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.44% versus SPX today, one should be cautious, so, I'm not going to discuss the trading stocks today.

Also, the S & P 500 (SPX) is probably in a countertrend short term Wave B upcycle of an intermediate term downcycle, see annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, with today's strength probably being Wave 1 up of Wave B, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Once SPX's Wave B peaks in a week or so it'll probably be a good idea to exit long positions. The Elliott Wave count, plus SPX may put in a bearish large spike when Wave B peaks, will be highly useful for timing the short term Wave B upcycle.

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

More StockCharts WMT Gallery Chart #2 Errors And The Gold COT Data

StockCharts WMT Gallery Chart #2 is wrong (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), since it shows the October 2006 cycle high to be 51.47, when in fact it's 52.15, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ASK Research also shows the October 2006 cycle high to be 52+.

There are more errors listed below, but, in the case of the Wave 4 intermediate term cycle low (occurred in in December 2006) discussed below, Yahoo and ASK Research differ. The bottom line is that WMT's Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle since December 2006 should exceed the Wave 3 cycle high that occurred at 52.15 in October 2006. Wave 5 of Wave 5 may have begun with Friday's potential monthly cycle low at 45.73.

In September 2005 WMT hit a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 42.31 (StockCharts Gallery Chart 2 said 41.18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt). A Wave 1 intermediate term cycle high occurred at 50.87 (StockCharts Gallery Chart 2 said 49.51, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) in November 2005. A Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low occurred at 42.31 (perfect double bottom with September 2005 cycle low, StockCharts Gallery Chart 2 said 41.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) in July 2006. A Wave 3 intermediate term cycle high occurred at 52.15 (StockCharts Gallery Chart 2 said 51.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) in October 2006. A Wave 4 intermediate term cycle low occurred at 45.54 in December 2006 according to Yahoo, whereas ASK Research shows it being below 45 (StockCharts Gallery Chart 2 said 44.38, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) in December 2006. I used Yahoo's historical data (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=WMT&a=10&b=30&c=2006&d=00&e=1&f=2007&g=d), and, it seemed to jive with ASK Research's WMT chart with the one exception.

The latest gold COT data is a major eye opener, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, because it reveals that the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders nailed the recent gold weakness in a very big way, adding 38,744 short gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-24-07, and, they also liquidated 16,144 long futures and options contracts, while the clueless gold Speculators, including some "legendary" (try not to laugh) gold writers, got massacred last week, adding 41,396 long gold futures and options contracts in the 5 day period ending 7-24-07, and, they also covered 7301 short gold futures and options contracts.

The fact that the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders have been going massively short in recent weeks, with the latest weekly data being probably the most bearish COT data I've seen in a few years, is obviously a major negative.

Gold's final Wave 5 spike move of the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006 occurred in about two years time, during which gold nearly doubled (so much for gold suppression). The 5+ year Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaked at $730ish in May 2006. Gold fell from $730 in May 2006 to $542 in June 2006, which was Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. Does anyone in their right mind honestly think that the huge two year Wave 5 spike, in which gold nearly doubled, would be fully corrected in about one month's time??? Of course, some of the gold writers obviously aren't in their right minds.

Some of the gold writers are so clueless that they harp about gold being suppressed by some "cartel," despite the fact that gold averaged 30-35%/year for OVER FIVE YEARS in the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006. 30-35% is a great year, so, to do that for FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS is an amazing performance that gold bugs should be proud of. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

.....StockCharts WMT Gallery Chart #2 Is Wrong

StockCharts WMT Gallery Chart #2 is wrong (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), since it shows the October 2006 cycle high to be 51.47, when in fact it's above 52, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ASK Research also shows the October 2006 cycle high to be 52+.

I'll do a big picture WMT Elliott Wave chart this weekend, probably using a Yahoo Candlestick chart and their historical data for cycle highs/lows. This is sad, because StockCharts charts are great, but, one has to be able to trust the data/charts.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Should Be Bottoming, BUT, SPX Is In A Short Term Wave A Downcycle

A Wave 5 monthly upcycle of reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT's Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle since December 2006 may have began today at 45.73, and, should take out the Wave 3 intermediate term cycle high that occurred at 51.47 in October 2006 in the near future, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Toward session's end WMT was testing the session cycle low at 45.73, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The bearish WMT Lead Indicator today, at -0.28% versus SPX, suggests that WMT and SPX may make lower cycle lows on Monday.

The current substantial decline is probably just a short term Wave A down of the intermediate term downcycle for SPX (read on and see annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), so, this is a very precarious market now. Once SPX's short term Wave A bottoms, possibly on Monday, it should do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle for a week or two, then another substantial decline should occur corresponding to Wave C of SPX's intermediate term downcycle, in which it will bottom.

Once SPX's short term countertrend Wave B peaks in a week or two one should seriously consider exiting long positions and possibly trade short to catch the short term Wave C downcycle. The Elliott Wave count will be highly useful in timing Wave B (should do 12345 up down up down up pattern), and, a bearish large spike is likely to occur when Wave B peaks.

See annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the S & P 500's (SPX) Elliott Wave count. A intermediate term cycle high occurred at 1555.90 nine sessions ago, for the intermediate term upcycle that began in March (see chart 1 at the link above). The current substantial decline is probably just Wave A down of the intermediate term downcycle (see chart 1 at the link above).

Note the Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in the previous intermediate term downcycle (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and in Wave 4 down of the most recent intermediate term upcycle that recently peaked at 1555.90. I probably will do an SPX and WMT chart weekly or at least as required.

It's possible that the recent cycle high at 1555.90 is a very important Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the Cyclical Bull Market that began in October 2002. If so then SPX's Cyclical Bull Market uptrendline will clearly break down and flash a major sell signal.

There isn't much point in discussing the trading stocks today, but, if you're a daredevil, three trading stocks that appear to have bottomed are FRPT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt), JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), and JRCC (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc).

In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.

Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

..............WMT's Big Picture Elliott Wave Count

One needs to look at the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, in which the cycle highs/lows are labeled. In September 2005 WMT hit a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 41.18. A Wave 1 intermediate term cycle high occurred at 49.51 in November 2005. A Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low occurred at 41.60 in July 2006. A Wave 3 intermediate term cycle high occurred at 51.47 in October 2006. A Wave 4 intermediate term cycle low occurred at 44.38 in December 2006.

For the Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle since December 2006, one needs to look at the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT's Wave 1 peaked at 49.95 in February 2007, Wave 2 down bottomed at 44.85 in March 2007, Wave 3 up peaked at 51.44 in June 2007, Wave 4 down probably bottomed today at 45.73 (bullish very large inverse spike), so, Wave 5 of the Wave 5 intermediate term upcycle since December 2006 (probably began today) will probably take out the Wave 3 intermediate term cycle high that occurred at 51.47 in October 2006 in the near future (and of course the shorter term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 that occurred in June 2007).

The WMT action is what was expected (should exceed 51.44 and 51.47 in the near future), but, the near term Elliott Wave count previously discussed was wrong, because, I hadn't diligently done the big picture Elliott Wave count. In the future I obviously need to make sure that I have a good grasp of the big picture Elliott Wave count.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

.......The S & P 500's (SPX) Elliott Wave Count

See annotated chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the S & P 500's (SPX) Elliott Wave count. An intermediate term cycle high occurred at 1555.90 eight sessions ago, for the intermediate term upcycle that began in March (see chart 1 at the link above). The current substantial decline is probably just Wave A down of the intermediate term downcycle (see chart 1 at the link above).

Note the Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in the previous intermediate term downcycle (see chart 1 at the link above) and in Wave 4 down of the most recent intermediate term upcycle that recently peaked at 1555.90. I probably should do an SPX chart weekly or at least as required.

It's possible that the recent cycle high at 1555.90 is a very important Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the Cyclical Bull Market that began in October 2002. If so then SPX's Cyclical Bull Market uptrendline will clearly break down and flash a major sell signal.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

.......WMT's Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Held!

The positive story amidst today's big gloom is that WMT's short term Wave 2 cycle low at 46.47 (occurred in late May) held. Today's cycle low at 46.53, that took out the previous likely short term Wave 4 cycle low at 47.23, has a good chance of being the short term Wave 4 cycle low, since Elliott Wave patterns usually hold/rarely fail, WMT put in a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), and, the WMT Lead Indicator is short term Bullish (was +0.14% versus SPX today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 yesterday and SPX (S & P 500) may have put in (bullish large inverse spike today) a Wave A cycle low at 1465.59 late today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) versus the prior monthly cycle low at 1484.18 and a monthly cycle high at 1555.90 eight sessions ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which was the third/final Wave 5 cycle high of the intermediate term upcycle that began in March.

The month upcycle from 1484.18 until 1555.90 was a final Wave 5 upcycle. This became apparent after today's decline, which took out the previous monthly cycle low at 1484.18. SPX's current eight session downcycle is very likely to be just Wave A down of an intermediate term downcycle, since a short term Wave B type upcycle hasn't occurred yet. Wave B may have begun late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

This means that, once SPX's Wave B upcycle peaks some time in the next week or so, one should seriously consider exiting long positions and (possibly) look to trade short, since another substantial/vicious decline in Wave C is very likely to occur.

Now for the rockets:

ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 28.81, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up. The bullish large inverse spike suggests that ACI's intermediate term downcycle may have bottomed at 28.81 today.

AEZ, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, took out it's likely monthly cycle low that occurred at 5.74, with a cycle low today at 5.61. Note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred. Once AEZ does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up.

BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 on Tuesday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, versus a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.09 and a monthly cycle low at 1.40. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.

BCON put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from Thursday 7-19 is a bullish breakaway gap.

BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 on Monday and fell further to close at 3.78 on Tuesday (BQI probably entered Wave C down of a monthly downcycle today).

BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.

JASO's monthly downcycle appears to have bottomed at 33.50 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the dramatic rally to close at 35.06. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more (did today, but waiting for a higher high tomorrow makes sense) and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.

TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at Monday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), peaked at 2.20 on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up. TMY's short term Wave 4 downcycle may have bottomed at 1.84 today.

TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in chart 1 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy.

JRCC may have put in an intermediate term cycle low at 7.05 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. One should wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle/monthly cycle buy signal, and, maybe even for JRCC to clearly put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low above 7.05 before looking to buy JRCC, since it needs to establish an important intermediate term cycle low.

Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

WMT Filled It's Downside Gap At 47.68 And SPX (S & P 500) May Have Put In A Monthly Cycle Low

WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 today and SPX (S & P 500) may have put in a monthly cycle low at 1503.73 early today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) versus the prior monthly cycle low at 1484.18 and a monthly cycle high at 1555.90 seven sessions ago, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Note that SPX's candle today has a bullish large inverse spike and is white, indicating a close higher than the open, which is the same type of candle that occurred at the previous monthly cycle low at 1484.18.

Since WMT filled it's downside gap at 47.68 today, Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 (began at 47.23) may have finally bottomed at 47.55 today. Often important cycle lows/highs occur shortly after gap filling action is completed. WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

Yesterday's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.79% versus SPX, that became more bullish as the session progressed, correctly suggested that SPX would start to rally soon, and did so early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.78% versus SPX today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), but, if WMT bottomed at 47.55 at about 1:30 pm EST today, it may have turned short term bullish yesterday.

Now for the rockets:

ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 29.35, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle and hits a monthly cycle buy signal, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up. The bullish large inverse spike suggests that ACI's intermediate term downcycle may have bottomed at 29.35 today.

AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle appears to have bottomed at 5.91 today (closed sharply higher at 6.174), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, note the bullish large inverse spike that occurred. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred. AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open.

BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 yesterday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, versus a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.09 and a monthly cycle low at 1.40. I thought about buying some yesterday, but, the very weak market plus the late session BCON weakness/downtrend kept me out. Today I was being cautious and I may wait for the downtrend line going back to the 2.09 Wave 1 cycle high to be broken. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.

BCON probably put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday 7-19 appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.

BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 on Monday and fell further to close at 3.78 yesterday (BQI entered Wave B up of a monthly downcycle yesterday).

BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.

JASO's monthly downcycle appears to have bottomed at 33.50 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's candle and the dramatic rally to close at 35.06. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.

TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at Monday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), peaked at 2.20 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up. TMY's short term Wave 4 downcycle may have bottomed at 1.95 late today.

TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.

Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

SPX's (S & P 500) Cycle High At 1555.90 Was A Monthly Cycle High

SPX's (S & P 500) cycle high at 1555.90 six sessions ago was a monthly cycle high, for the monthly upcycle that began at 1484.18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. One can see that there are two inverse spikes in the previous monthly upcycle that correspond to short term Wave 2 and Wave 4 cycle lows.

I assumed that the first inverse spike was part of a long short term Wave 1 upcycle, because, that's what it looked like to me, but, I should have considered the possibility that it was a short term Wave 2 cycle low. If there's doubt one should simply use the conservative Elliott Wave count.

I correctly refrained from buying the ultra long ETF SSO in recent sessions however, but, bought WMT at 48.77ish a few sessions ago. I'll look to buy SSO tomorrow (read on).

SPX is probably in the process of putting in a monthly cycle low, and, may have done so shortly before the close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.79% versus SPX, which became more bullish as the session progressed (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), suggests that SPX will start to rally soon, probably early tomorrow.

WMT tried to fill it's downside gap at 47.68 today, with an early plunge to 47.72 followed by a sharp rally, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It looks like Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 (began at 47.23) finally bottomed at 47.72 today, after putting in cycle lows in recent sessions at 47.95, 47.92, and, at 47.96.

WMT's short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The downside gap at 47.68 is probably a bullish breakaway gap.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.05% versus the XAU today, but, probably just points to a reflex rally/Wave B type move (or maybe peaking in rollover mode action) after today's sharp intraday decline, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

Now for the rockets:

ACI's intermediate term downcycle continued to plumb new lows today, with a cycle low at 30.89, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. Once ACI does a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, I'll look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 down or early in Wave 3 up.

AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open that I'll wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, which helped me to avoid today's slight downside surprise. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle didn't bottom on Wednesday 7-18 at 6.11, since today's cycle low was 6.10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez, which might be the short term Wave 2 cycle low. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.

BCON's short term Wave 2 probably bottomed at 1.59 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I thought about buying some today, but, the very weak market plus the late session BCON weakness/downtrend kept me out. I'll look for a good entry point tomorrow.

BCON probably put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday 7-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.

BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00 yesterday and fell further to close at 3.78 today (BQI's in Wave A of a monthly downcycle).

BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.

JASO's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 34.27 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.

TMY's short term Wave 3, which made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at yesterday's open (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), may have peaked at 2.20 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. I may trade TMY long to catch the short term Wave 5 up.

TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.

Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Has Formed A Short Term Bullish Triple Bottom

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT has formed a short term bullish triple bottom at 47.95 last Wednesday, 47.92 on Friday, and at 47.95 today,
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

Friday's cycle low at 47.92 is probably a Wave 2 down cycle low of a short term Wave 5, the short term Wave 4 bottomed at 47.23. Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 and a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low occurred at 46.32, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The downside gap at 47.68 is probably a bullish breakaway gap.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.39% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, but, it narrowed significantly late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

SPX has done a short term Wave 4 Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since putting in a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 1555.90 on Monday 7-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A monthly cycle low occurred at 1484.18. SPX probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle at mid session on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.71% versus the XAU today, but, it narrowed/became less bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

Now for the rockets:

ACI may have put in an intermediate term and monthly cycle low at 31.31 today, since it rallied dramatically to close at 33.34, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. ACI needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal. The fact that ACI filled today's upside gap at 33.44 is another sign that ACI probably bottomed today.

AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from Friday's open that I'll wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed Wednesday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.

It looks like BCON may have put in a monthly cycle low at 1.40 last Wednesday, since it's done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since hitting a short term cycle high at 2.09 early on Friday (Wave A cycle low at 1.75 on Friday and Wave C at 1.71 today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday appears to be a bullish breakaway gap.

But, BCON needs to show some significant strength tomorrow to clearly indicate that it's in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. If so I'll probably look to buy some on weakness. Today's large bullish inverse spike, plus the fact that BCON didn't approach it's downside gap at 1.42 (doesn't look like it'll fill it) are positive signs.

BQI's monthly upcycle appears to have peaked at 4.38 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi, since it fell dramatically to close at 4.00. BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line the week before last and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.

JASO's monthly downcycle may have bottomed at 35.70 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. JASO needs to trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.

TMY, in a short term Wave 3, made a large bullish breakaway gap from 1.55 to 1.69 at today's open, and, closed above the open (bullish white candle) and has a bullish large inverse spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. TMY put in a monthly, intermediate term, and, probably also a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 1.04 recently (see link above and note the bullish large inverse spike). TMY put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 1.88 and a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.42. They're labeled in the chart at the link above.

Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

...........BCON's Current Situation Made Simpler

After thinking about BCON's current situation more today (discussed in previous post, BCON's dramatic spike late last week appears to be a countertrend Wave B upcycle instead of a short term Wave 1 of a new monthly upcycle discussed previously), the downside gap at 1.42 should help to greatly simplify BCON's outlook (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon) this week.

If BCON starts to approach the downside gap at 1.42 from last Thursday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), if it falls to 1.50ish, then it'll probably fill the downside gap at 1.42 (and probably also try to fill 1.14 and 1.07) and the cycle low at 1.40 from last Wednesday probably isn't a monthly cycle low.

But, if BCON doesn't approach the downside gap at 1.42 this week, if it bottoms (would be a short term Wave 2 cycle low) at 1.55ish+ (or if Friday's cycle low at 1.75 is a short term Wave 2 cycle low) then starts to rally strongly, then the cycle low at 1.40 from last Wednesday probably is a monthly cycle low.

Given Friday's bearish very large spike and the absence of a bullish inverse spike at 1.40 (last Wednesday's cycle low), which might be but probably isn't a monthly cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon, one has to be cautious regarding BCON right now, until the Elliott Wave count clears up.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

BCON's Dramatic Spike Late Last Week Might Be Wave B

BCON's dramatic spike late last week appears to be a countertrend Wave B instead of a short term Wave 1 of a new monthly upcycle discussed previously, especially given Friday's bearish very large spike and the absence of a bullish inverse spike at 1.40, which might be but probably isn't a monthly cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon.

If BCON is in a monthly upcycle since putting in a cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) then it should put in a short term Wave 2 down cycle low above 1.40 obviously, probably this week. Sometimes the Elliott Wave count isn't clear and one has to be conservative, and, assume Wave B occurred rather than Wave 1 of a new monthly upcycle, until a short term Wave 2 cycle low (potentially) clearly occurs or the potential monthly cycle low is taken out.

Also, signs that support the likelihood of a countertrend Wave B peaking at 2.09 early on Friday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bcon&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) rather than a short term Wave 1 are the very brief huge spike move from 1.40 to 2.09, most of which occurred in about one session's time, that's uncharacteristic of a short term Wave 1, it looks more like a countertrend Wave B upcycle/reflex rally, and, the bearish huge spike on Friday's candle plus the lack of a bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle, when the cycle low at 1.40 occurred, mean that one must assume that 2.09 was a countertrend Wave B cycle high on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon.

Also, BCON has unfilled downside gaps at 1.42, 1.14, 1.07, 0.92, and at 0.83, see the historical data at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=BCON. After BCON closed at those prices it never fell back to close those gaps in subsequent sessions (session cycle lows are above the previous closes at 1.42, 1.14, 1.07, 0.92, and at 0.83). The downside gaps at 1.14 and 1.07 are close together and realistically might get filled in Wave C, but, 0.92 and 0.83 are probably bullish breakaway gaps and will remain unfilled.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

The Extremely Bearish One Year NEM Lead Indicator

You want to see scary? I'll show you scary, see the one year NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Hell's coming to breakfast (very likely not 100%) the next few months for the precious metals sector.

It hasn't been a picnic since a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU/gold and on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, see charts 7 and 9 for HUI and the XAU, and, see chart 8 for NEM at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

One thing that I agree with most gold writers about is the likelihood (very likely) that the precious metals are in a 15-20+ year Secular Bull Market since April 2001 for gold, since late 2001 for silver, and, since late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU.

Technically gold bottomed in 1999 but didn't begin Bull Market behavior (sustained uptrend) until April 2001. Gold's Secular Bear Market lasted about 21 years, from 1980 until April 2001. With investing/trading one can NEVER be 100% certain, and, cockiness has no place. One better have a very healthy respect for the market or it will probably eventually if not quickly eat you alive.

As a famous quote says "professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward." I don't remember who said that, but, it's so true. Most of the gold writers are amateurs who are 100% certain (it seems) that gold will go to $1500/2000 in the next 5-10 years. I think it will in 10-15 years, but, it's NOT 100% certain. If you follow my work and my "Trade the Cycles" system you'll probably conclude that my focus is on risk.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU (see charts 7 and 9 at the link above). Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Appears To Have Hit A Wave 2 Of Wave 5 Cycle Low At 47.92 Today

Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT appears to have hit a Wave 2 of Wave 5 Cycle Low at 47.92 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

The fact that WMT plunged early in the session to the session cycle low at 47.92 and put in a bullish large inverse spike, then trended higher much of the rest of the session, is a good sign, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The bullish double bottom cycle low at 47.96 from Wednesday is another good sign. Today's weakness was largely driven by earnings disappointments from Google (GOOG) and Caterpiller (CAT).

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.28% versus SPX today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), but, was a very bullish +1.11% yesterday.

SPX has done a short term Wave 4 Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since putting in a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 1555.90 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. A monthly cycle low occurred at 1484.18. SPX has declined toward the bottom of it's monthly upcycle channel and probably entered a short term Wave 5 upcycle at mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note that SPX did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern late in the session, so, early strength is likely on Monday.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.92% versus the XAU today after being a modestly bearish -0.40% yesterday, and, became much more bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

HUI's third/final Wave 5 of Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 appears to be peaking modestly above the prior Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs that occurred at 369.38 (September 2006) and at 369.69 (April 2007), see the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

Gold's Wave B probably peaked at $698 in April 2007 and Wave A bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold). $475-500 is a reasonable target for the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's final Wave C cycle low, which will be another point on the relatively flat very long term upcycle Secular Bull Market trendline.

Now for the trading stocks:

ACI took out it's double bottom at 32.94 and 33 today, with a session cycle low at 32.86 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), so, ACI needs to establish a monthly cycle low by doing a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle.

AEZ has an upside gap at 6.50 from today's open that I'll probably wait to get filled before looking to buy, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed Wednesday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ on Monday. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.

BCON hit a monthly cycle low at 1.40 on Wednesday, and, hit a monthly cycle buy signal yesterday, exploding to 1.80 on big volume of 8.8 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down.

BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.

BQI's short term third/final Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) appeared to peak at 3.97 on Monday, but, it's peaking in rollover mode (not unusual, especially for stocks in a strong upcycle), with a cycle high at 4.25 today. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.

JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 on Wednesday, since it trended higher for another day or more and is doing a short term Wave 1 upcycle see (hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session), http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle and the dramatic two rally indicates that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 on Wednesday, but, one should wait for today's upside gap at 39.06 to get filled before looking to buy JASO.

Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

The WMT Lead Indicator Was A Very Bullish +1.11% Versus The S & P 500 (SPX) Today

The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.11% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. I bought WMT near session's end slightly below 48.77.

It looks like WMT might do an intraday Wave C decline early tomorrow (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), but, based on the very bullish WMT Lead Indicator today, the large bullish inverse spike on today's candle, and the fact that WMT held up well near session's end, I bought some WMT. It looks like Wave 2 down of the short term Wave 5 bottomed at 47.96 yesterday, which means that the downside gap at 47.68 and today's at 48.04 are bullish breakaway gaps.

Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's recent cycle high should have been Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy SSO on weakness tomorrow.

HUI's third/final Wave 5 of Wave B of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 is probably peaking (change from what I said yesterday, gold's picture is unchanged). For HUI Wave 1 of Wave B was 369.38 in September 2006, Wave 3 was 369.69 in April 2007, and, the cycle high that occurs now will probably Wave 5 of Wave B, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

In Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 HUI is doing an extremely flat uptrend, with Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs at 369.38 and 369.69. This is a great opportunity to get the hell out of gold and gold shares, HOWEVER, some gold/silver stocks are in a Cyclical Bull Market, in which case one might hold them, but, the next few months should be very tough for the precious metals market, so, lightening up probably makes sense for many investors/traders.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.40% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

My trading stocks/rockets synopsis:

ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci) got rocked by a downgrade yesterday, and, took out what was a likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 34.01, with a cycle low yesterday at 33, slightly above the monthly cycle low (32.94, hit monthly cycle buy signal on 6-28). ACI returned to a bullish stance quickly by rallying dramatically and filling yesterday's upside gap at 34.59. The bullish very large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the bullish double bottom cycle lows at 33 (short term Wave 2 cycle low) and 32.94 (monthly cycle low) are a great sign. ACI had a bearish large spike on today's candle, so, I'm going to wait for more strength before I look to buy it. Also, the double bottom cycle low at 33 (with 32.94) might be/probably is the equivalent of a monthly cycle low, so, I'm being cautious.

AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed yesterday at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ tomorrow. Today's strength was a dramatic spike during the last hour of trading. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.

JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 yesterday, since it trended higher for another day or more and is doing a short term Wave 1 upcycle see (hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session), http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle and the dramatic rally yesterday/today indicate that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 yesterday. I'll be looking to buy JASO tomorrow since it hit a monthly cycle buy signal today early in the session, then trended down most of the session. I might wait for the short term Wave 2 down also before buying.

A new rocket, ENCY, appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market a few days ago, and, is in Wave 5 up of a short term Wave 1, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency. I'm going to wait for the short term Wave 2 down and see if Tuesday's potential bullish breakaway gap at 1.70 remains unfilled. If so, I may trade this. However, given how the Biotech/Pharmas like AVNR, CEGE, DNDN, GNBT have disappointed, I'm reluctant to trade one.

BCON hit a monthly cycle low at 1.40 yesterday, and, hit a monthly cycle buy signal today, exploding to 1.80 on big volume of 8.8 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down.

ONT probably hit a monthly cycle low at 2.13 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ont, but, it needs to follow through more before a monthly cycle buy signal occurs. I'll look to buy in the short term Wave 2 down. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle.

BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.

BQI's short term third/final Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) appeared to peak at 3.97 on Monday, but, it's peaking in rollover mode (not unusual, especially for stocks in a strong upcycle), with a cycle high at 4.10 today. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.

FRPT made a bullish breakaway gap at 20.19 at yesterday's open. FRPT may have hit a monthly cycle low at 19.85 on Monday. FRPT needs to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, and, should fill Monday's bearish breakaway gap at 22.89 in the process. Thanks to an unexpected order going to a competitor FRPT took out the likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 and the monthly cycle low at 20.39 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

Since FRPT is being gyrated a lot by news recently (may just be that type of stock, in which case I'll avoid it), I probably won't trade it again until I get a better feel for it or decide that the news flow is making it too unpredictable/untradeable. I think the news flow will settle down and it'll be tradeable, it's cycles will probably follow the usual Elliott Wave patterns.

Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

Weak SPX As Expected And Gold/HUI/NEM/XAU Spiked

Here's an e mail I just sent someone: "Gold's primary multi year trendline is at 475ish right now, so, it's not really MY target (475-500), I'm simply using the primary trendline. Basic TA. Wave A down was $542 in June of last year I think it was. Wave B up peaked at $696ish in April 2007 I think it was. Gold's in Wave B of Wave C and should soon enter Wave C of Wave C. The laws of physics still apply.

This spike is probably Wave B of Wave C for HUI. Wave B peaked with double top cycle highs at 369.69 and 369.38. See the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Today's cycle high was 365.12."

Today had the look of important peaking action for Gold/HUI/NEM/XAU. Note that the NEM Lead Indicator turned bearish by session's end, falling from +1.00%ish versus the XAU at mid session to -0.02% at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

SPX was weak as expected today, and, it looks like WMT may fill it's downside gap at 47.68 before Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 5 bottoms, since the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.43% versus SPX today, and, it turned bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

WMT's Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked at 49.26 on Friday (leading to the downside), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The S & P 500's (SPX) Wave 2 of a short term Wave 5 upcycle plunged today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.

In simple terms, both WMT and SPX had large spike moves last Thursday that are correcting. Since WMT should take out the short term Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), SPX's recent cycle high should have been Wave 1 of the short term Wave 5 upcycle. I'll be looking to buy WMT and SSO on weakness tomorrow.

To summarize today's trading stocks/rockets action:

ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci) got rocked by a downgrade today, and, took out what was a likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 34.01, with a cycle low today at 33, slightly above the monthly cycle low (32.94, hit monthly cycle buy signal on 6-28). ACI returned to a bullish stance quickly by rallying dramatically and filling today's upside gap at 34.59, which means that I'll be looking to buy ACI tomorrow. The bullish very large inverse spike on today's candle and the bullish double bottom cycle lows at 33 (short term Wave 2 cycle low) and 32.94 (monthly cycle low) is a great sign.

AEZ's short term Wave 2 downcycle probably bottomed today at 6.11, since it filled it's downside gap at 6.22 then bounced to close at 6.40, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aez. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's candle. I'll be looking to buy AEZ tomorrow. A monthly cycle low occurred at 5.74, note the bullish very large inverse spike that occurred.

JASO may have hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 today, if so it should trend higher for another day or more and do a short term Wave 1 upcycle see, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. The bullish large inverse spike on today's candle and the dramatic rally today indicate that JASO probably hit a monthly cycle low at 36.62 today. I'll look to buy JASO if it hits a monthly cycle buy signal.

A new rocket, ENCY, appears to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market a few days ago, and, is probably in Wave 5 up of a short term Wave 1, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency. I'm going to wait for the short term Wave 2 down and see if Tuesday's potential bullish breakaway gap at 1.70 remains unfilled. If so, I may trade this. However, given how the Biotech/Pharmas like AVNR, CEGE, DNDN, GNBT have disappointed, I'm reluctant to trade one.

BQI broke it's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line late last week and hit a 5% follow through major buy signal Friday or Monday (I'd have to chart it to know), which indicates that the Cyclical Bear Market (very likely) ended in early June at 2.37, note the bullish large inverse spike.

BQI's short term Wave 5 of the monthly upcycle since late June (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi) peaked at 3.97 on Monday (monthly cycle high). Note the bearish large spike on Monday's candle. The downside gap at 2.70 should be a bullish breakaway gap, so, in the monthly downcycle that began Monday BQI shouldn't fill 2.70, it should bottom above 2.70 for BQI to remain bullish.

FRPT made a bullish breakaway gap at 20.19 at today's open. FRPT may have hit a monthly cycle low at 19.85 on Monday. FRPT needs to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, and, should fill Monday's bearish breakaway gap at 22.89 in the process. Thanks to an unexpected order going to a competitor FRPT took out the likely short term Wave 2 cycle low at 20.71 and the monthly cycle low at 20.39 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?frpt and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=frpt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

Since FRPT is being gyrated a lot by news recently (may just be that type of stock, in which case I'll avoid it), I probably won't trade it again until I get a better feel for it or decide that the news flow is making it too unpredictable/untradeable. I think the news flow will settle down and it'll be tradeable, it's cycles will probably follow the usual Elliott Wave patterns.

Since VPHM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vphm) isn't in a well established multi month intermediate term upcycle and I don't like the chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=vphm&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, I won't be trading it.

Stocks that look great once they complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles are WWAT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat), TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta), BCON (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bcon), JASO (may have bottomed, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso), RVNG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng), UVSE.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uvse), and INIS (thin/low average daily volume, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?inis).

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU