Trade the Cycles

Thursday, June 29, 2006

...........The Third/Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle

The third/Wave 5 short term upcycle of the monthly upcycle since 6-13 began late yesterday. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau.

The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch today as they nearly always do on Thursdays: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm, which boosted the S & P 500 (SPX) that's boosting many other indexes.

Today's SPX strength is a major factor behind HUI, NEM, and the XAU's strength. Index fund trading is a huge factor that most are unaware of. Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -4.55% vs the XAU last week, was a bullish +1.63% vs the XAU the week before, and, was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU three weeks ago. A monthly upcycle has been in effect since 6-13, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06.

The XAU has upside gaps at 139.83 from 6-6 and at 159.41 from 5-15, and, NEM has upside gaps at 52.58 from 6-5 and at 56.31 from 5-15 that will probably get filled in the next few weeks, though the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 and NEM's upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 may be breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. Thursday 6-15's downside gaps created at the open at 122.71 for the XAU and at 48.59 for NEM are short term breakaway gaps that won't get filled until after monthly cycle highs occur in the next few weeks. They appeared to be breakaway gaps the day they occurred because they were much larger than gaps normally are.

Long term cycle highs occurred on 5-11-06 for HUI at 401.69 and at 171.71 for the XAU, and, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04. "Trade the Cycles" worked well as usual. Those cycle highs are probably also Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU, which means that an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market is probably in effect for HUI/NEM/XAU, that corresponds to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. See charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html with chart 8 being the very important very long term chart done in February which revealed that the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market was peaking, and, the USD chart is very important because the USD put in a major cycle low recently and is in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, of course the NEM Lead Indicator chart also points to a Cyclical Bear Market.

Tuesday 6-13 was the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

SPX (S & P 500) Weakness And Downside Gap Filling Action

After early strength NEM and the XAU filled downside gaps created at today's open at 50.34 and 134.90. The second/Wave 3 short term upcycle of the monthly upcycle since 6-13 peaked early today.

Today's SPX weakness was a major factor behind HUI, NEM, and the XAU's weakness. Index fund trading is a huge factor that most are unaware of. Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -4.55% vs the XAU last week, was a bullish +1.63% vs the XAU the week before, and, was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU three weeks ago. A monthly upcycle has been in effect since 6-13, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06.

The XAU has upside gaps at 139.83 from 6-6 and at 159.41 from 5-15, and, NEM has upside gaps at 52.58 from 6-5 and at 56.31 from 5-15 that will probably get filled in the next few weeks, though the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 and NEM's upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 may be breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. Thursday 6-15's downside gaps created at the open at 122.71 for the XAU and at 48.59 for NEM are short term breakaway gaps that won't get filled until after monthly cycle highs occur in the next few weeks. They appeared to be breakaway gaps the day they occurred because they were much larger than gaps normally are.

Long term cycle highs occurred on 5-11-06 for HUI at 401.69 and at 171.71 for the XAU, and, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04. "Trade the Cycles" worked well as usual. Those cycle highs are probably also Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU, which means that an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market is probably in effect for HUI/NEM/XAU, that corresponds to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. See charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html with chart 8 being the very important very long term chart done in February which revealed that the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market was peaking, and, the USD chart is very important because the USD put in a major cycle low recently and is in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, of course the NEM Lead Indicator chart also points to a Cyclical Bear Market.

Tuesday 6-13 was the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, June 22, 2006

.................It's Fed Punch Spiking Thursday

The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch today with a massive $11.50 Billion 1 day Repo and a $4 Billion 14 day Repo after a large $8.25 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is providing a lot of fuel for index fund traders that should boost SPX (S & P 500) after early weakness, which in turn should boost gold/silver stocks.

Today's early SPX weakness was a major factor behind HUI, NEM, and the XAU's early weakness just as yesterday's SPX strength was a major factor behind HUI, NEM, and the XAU's strength yesterday. Index fund trading is a huge factor that most are unaware of. Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +1.63% vs the XAU last week and was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU the week before. So, a substantial rebound (monthly upcycle since 6-13) is likely over the next few weeks, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06.

The XAU has upside gaps at 139.83 from 6-6 and at 159.41 from 5-15, and, NEM has upside gaps at 52.58 from 6-5 and at 56.31 from 5-15 that will probably get filled in the next few weeks, though the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 and NEM's upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 may be breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. Thursday 6-15's downside gaps created at the open at 122.71 for the XAU and at 48.59 for NEM are short term breakaway gaps that won't get filled until after monthly cycle highs occur in the next few weeks. They appeared to be breakaway gaps the day they occurred because they were much larger than gaps normally are.

It's pretty obvious that long term cycle highs did occur on 5-11-06 for HUI at 401.69 and at 171.71 for the XAU, and, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04. "Trade the Cycles" worked well as usual. Those cycle highs are probably also Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU, which means that an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market is probably in effect for HUI/NEM/XAU, that corresponds to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. See charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html with chart 8 being the very important very long term chart done in February.

Tuesday 6-13 was the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

HUI/XAU's Monthly Upcycle Is Probably In Wave 3 Up

HUI/XAU's monthly upcycle since 6-13 is probably in Wave 3 up now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. The two session downtrend from late 6-15 until late 6-19 appears to have been the monthly upcycle's Wave 2 down.

6-15's large XAU gap up (referred to as a downside gap (at 122.71) because it's below where the XAU currently trades) appears to be a short term breakaway gap as does NEM's at 48.59 from 6-15. Wave A down of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market Wave A down (began 5-11-06, NEM's began 1-31-06) bottomed on 6-13, so Wave A's Wave B is in effect and will probably be a monthly upcycle, which, when it peaks, will form the first relatively flat segment of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line.

Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. Index fund trading, driven by SPX and fueled by Fed lending, has a huge impact on many indexes, including HUI and the XAU. NEM and FCX are in SPX.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +1.63% vs the XAU last week and was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU the week before. So, a substantial rebound is likely over the next few weeks, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06. The XAU has upside gaps at 139.83 from 6-6 and at 159.41 from 5-15, and, NEM has upside gaps at 52.58 from 6-5 and at 56.31 from 5-15 that will probably get filled in the next few weeks, though the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 and NEM's upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 may be breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. Thursday 6-15's downside gaps created at the open at 122.71 for the XAU and at 48.59 for NEM are probably short term breakaway gaps that won't get filled until after monthly cycle highs occur in the next few weeks. They appear to be breakaway gaps because they're much larger than gaps normally are.

It's pretty obvious that long term cycle highs did occur on 5-11-06 for HUI at 401.69 and at 171.71 for the XAU, and, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04. "Trade the Cycles" worked well as usual. Those cycle highs are probably also Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU, which means that an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market is probably in effect for HUI/NEM/XAU, that corresponds to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. See charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html with chart 8 being the very important very long term chart done in February.

Tuesday 6-13 was probably the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, June 18, 2006

The Elliot Wave Count For HUI and the XAU

Wave A down of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market Wave A down (began 5-11-06, NEM's began 1-31-06) bottomed on 6-13, so Wave A's Wave B is in effect and will probably be a monthly upcycle, which, when it peaks, will form the first relatively flat segment of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line. HUI/XAU's monthly upcycle since 6-13 is probably still in Wave 1 up because 6-15's large XAU gap up (referred to as a downside gap (at 122.71) because it's below where the XAU currently trades) appears to be a short term breakaway gap.

Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. Index fund trading, driven by SPX and fueled by Fed lending, has a huge impact on many indexes, including HUI and the XAU. NEM and FCX are in SPX.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +1.63% vs the XAU last week and was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU the week before. So, a substantial rebound is likely over the next few weeks, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06.

The XAU has upside gaps at 139.83 from 6-6 and at 159.41 from 5-15, and, NEM has upside gaps at 52.58 from 6-5 and at 56.31 from 5-15 that will probably get filled in the next few weeks, though the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 and NEM's upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 may be breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. Thursday 6-15's downside gaps created at the open at 122.71 for the XAU and at 48.59 for NEM are probably short term breakaway gaps that won't get filled until after monthly cycle highs occur in the next few weeks. They appear to be breakaway gaps because they're much larger than gaps normally are.

It's pretty obvious that long term cycle highs did occur on 5-11-06 for HUI at 401.69 and at 171.71 for the XAU, and, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04. "Trade the Cycles" worked well as usual. Those cycle highs are probably also Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU, which means that an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market is probably in effect for HUI/NEM/XAU, that corresponds to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. See charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html with chart 8 being the very important very long term chart done in February.

Tuesday 6-13 was probably the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, June 15, 2006

...........It's The Fed's Punch Spiking Thursday

The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch today with a massive $12.25 Billion 1 day Repo and a $7 Billion 14 day Repo after a large $9.25 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is providing a lot of fuel for index fund traders that's boosting SPX (S & P 500), which in turn boosts many other indexes such as HUI and the XAU, and, stocks that are components of indexes such as NEM. Today's SPX strength is a major factor behind HUI, NEM, and the XAU's strength, just as the recent huge decline was driven in large part by SPX weakness. Index fund trading is a huge factor that most are unaware of.

Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.37% vs the XAU yesterday, was a very bullish +2.06% vs the XAU on 6-13 and was a very bullish +1.29% on 6-12. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU last week. So, a substantial rebound is likely over the next few weeks, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06.

The XAU has upside gaps at 139.83 from 6-6 and at 159.41 from 5-15, and, NEM has upside gaps at 52.58 from 6-5 and at 56.31 from 5-15 that will probably get filled in the next few weeks, though the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 and NEM's upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 may be breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market. Today's downside gaps created at the open at 122.71 for the XAU and at 48.59 for NEM are probably short term breakaway gaps that won't get filled until after monthly cycle highs occur in the next few weeks. They appear to be breakaway gaps because they're much larger than gaps normally are.

It's pretty obvious that long term cycle highs did occur on 5-11-06 for HUI at 401.69 and at 171.71 for the XAU, and, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04. "Trade the Cycles" worked well as usual. Those cycle highs are probably also Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU, which means that an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market is probably in effect for HUI/NEM/XAU, that corresponds to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. See charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html with chart 8 being the very important very long term chart done in February.

Tuesday 6-13 was probably the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Today's Strength Is Coinciding With S & P 500 Strength

Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch today with a $9.25 Billion 1 day Repo, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +2.06% vs the XAU on Tuesday and was a very bullish +1.29% vs the XAU on Monday. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU last week. So, a substantial rebound is likely over the next few weeks, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06.

Tuesday 6-13 was probably the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so this isn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monday, June 12, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was a Very Bullish +1.29% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +3.54% vs the XAU last week. So, a substantial rebound is likely over the next few weeks, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06. Thursday 6-8 was probably the bottom for this ABC downcycle (probably Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down), that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so this isn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, June 08, 2006

............More Downside Gap Filling Action Today

The XAU filled it's downside gap at 130.03 from 3-24 and NEM filled it's downside gap at 49.53 from 5-25. So, today might be an important monthly cycle low since all of the recently created downside gaps have been filled.

It's pretty obvious that long term cycle highs did occur on 5-11-06 for HUI at 401.69 and at 171.71 for the XAU, and, at 62.72 on 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04. "Trade the Cycles" worked well as usual. Those cycle highs are probably also Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/NEM/XAU, which means that an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market is probably in effect for HUI/NEM/XAU, that corresponds to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. See charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html with chart 8 being the very important very long term chart done in February.

Notice that today's weakness coincided with SPX (S & P 500) weakness: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a very bullish +1.00% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.58% vs the XAU on 6-7, was a bullish +0.70% vs the XAU on 6-6, was a very bullish +1.30% on 6-5, and, was a very bullish +1.78% on 6-2. So, a substantial rebound is likely over the next few weeks, and, cycle highs should occur for HUI/XAU such that their Cyclical Bear Market downtrend lines begin relatively flat, as NEM's did after it peaked on 1-31-06.

The Fed spiked the punch as they always do on Thursday, with about $16 Billion in Repos, so there should be a sharp rebound at some point today and maybe today is the bottom for this ABC downcycle, that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so this isn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market.

For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

............More Downside Gap Filling Action Today

The XAU filled it's downside gap at 135.54 from 5-25 and NEM filled it's downside gap at 51.67 from 6-2. The XAU has a downside gap at 130.03 from 3-24 that shouldn't get filled until Wave C. NEM has a downside gap at 49.53 from 5-25.

Notice that today's weakness coincided with SPX (S & P 500) weakness: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a very bullish +1.00% vs the XAU right now, was a very bullish +1.30% vs the XAU yesterday, and, was a very bullish +1.78% vs the XAU on 6-2.

Wave B up began on Monday 5-22 for HUI/XAU, with the XAU's cycle low on Monday 5-22 at 133.17 forming a near perfect double bottom with Wednesday 5-24's cycle low at 133.19, and, HUI also has a double bottom. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monday, June 05, 2006

.................Downside Gaps Got Filled Today

At 143.64 from today's open and at 141.69 from 6-2's open for the XAU and at 53.30 from today's open for NEM. The XAU has downside gaps at 135.54 from 5-25 and at 130.03 from 3-24 that shouldn't get filled until Wave C. NEM has downside gaps at 51.67 from 6-2 and at 49.53 from 5-25.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.30% vs the XAU today, and, was a very bullish +1.78% vs the XAU on 6-2.

Wave B up began on Monday 5-22 for HUI/XAU, with the XAU's cycle low on Monday 5-22 at 133.17 forming a near perfect double bottom with Wednesday 5-24's cycle low at 133.19, and, HUI also has a double bottom. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau.

Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, June 04, 2006

....................Weekly Update's Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 15 month charts, the major upcycle since 5-16-05 peaked for HUI/XAU on 5-11-06 and on 1-31-06 for NEM, and an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market has probably begun, that coincides with Elliot Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle since late 2000. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you

................Disclaimer Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

Saturday, June 03, 2006

The Latest COT Data (as of 5-30-06) Is Short Term Bullish

The latest COT data (as of 5-30-06) is short term bullish since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, which portends strength, but, the long liquidation by the gold Commercial Traders and the short covering by the gold Speculators points to some weakness. The gold Commercial Traders sold 6497 long futures and options contracts and covered 9482 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but the long liquidation points to some weakness. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 6930 long futures and options contracts and covered 3565 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below). ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Friday, June 02, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = +1.78% Vs The XAU Today

Which is very bullish, so, if the XAU fills the downside gap created at today's open at 141.69 early tomorrow, that should be a good trading opportunity. NEM created a downside gap at 51.67 at today's open that probably won't get filled until Wave B's Wave 4 down or later. Fed Credit rose a substantial +$4.139 Billion in the Week Ending 5-31-06 and there were $16 Billion in Repos yesterday, which obviously portends strength.

Today's NEM Lead Indicator: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem. Wave B's Wave 3 up is in effect. See 5 day XAU chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Note That NEM Hit a Long Term Cycle High

Note that NEM hit a long term cycle high and probably a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-31-06 versus 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU. HUI/NEM/XAU are probably in an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market corresponding to Wave 2 down of the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle that began in late 2000. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. If you scroll down about 10 to 12 charts you'll find the very long term chart of the XAU (done in February) with the Elliot Wave count.

The wide disparity between when NEM peaked and when HUI/XAU peaked is a strong indication that an 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Market has begun for HUI/NEM/XAU, because NEM is a reliable lead indicator. Since many gold/silver stocks' cycles lag or are out of sync with HUI/NEM/XAU there are still a lot of good investing and trading opportunities in the sector. ........ http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Yesterday's Upside Gaps Got Filled As Expected

NEM and the XAU filled upside gaps created at yesterday's open at 52.15 and 142.60 early today.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 down of Wave B bottomed yesterday, so Wave B's Wave 3 up began yesterday for HUI/XAU.Wave B up began on Monday 5-22 for HUI/XAU, with the XAU's cycle low on Monday 5-22 at 133.17 forming a near perfect double bottom with Wednesday 5-24's cycle low at 133.19, and, HUI also has a double bottom. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau.

Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +1.00% vs the XAU right now, was a modestly bearish -0.28% vs the XAU on 6-1, was a slightly bearish -0.08% vs the XAU on 5-31, was a slightly bearish -0.21% vs the XAU on 5-30, was a slightly bullish +0.10% on 5-26, was a bullish +0.29% on 5-25, was a bullish +0.79% vs the XAU on 5-24, a bearish -1.04% on on 5-23, and, was a combined bullish +1.20% the prior two sessions.

The XAU has downside gaps at 135.54 from 5-25 and at 130.03 from 3-24 that shouldn't get filled until Wave C. NEM has a downside gap at 49.53 from 5-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, June 01, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.28% Vs The XAU Today

And became negative near session's end, as evidenced by the narrowing of the performance gap between NEM and the XAU: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem. It looks like NEM and the XAU will fill the upside gaps they created at today's open at 52.15 and 142.60 early tomorrow, then some brief weakness should set in.

Wave B's Wave 2 down for HUI/XAU probably bottomed today, so Wave B's Wave 3 up is probably in effect. See 5 day XAU chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sharp Decline As Expected And Fed Punch Spiking

As they always do on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm, with $16 Billion in Repos. HUI/XAU's Wave 2 down of Wave B may have bottomed today. Wave B's Wave 2 down began on Tuesday for HUI/XAU.

Wave B up began on Monday 5-22 for HUI/XAU, with the XAU's cycle low on Monday 5-22 at 133.17 forming a near perfect double bottom with Wednesday 5-24's cycle low at 133.19, and, HUI also has a double bottom. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau.

Notice how closely the XAU tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.08% vs the XAU on 5-31, was a slightly bearish -0.21% vs the XAU on 5-30, was a slightly bullish +0.10% on 5-26, was a bullish +0.29% on 5-25, was a bullish +0.79% vs the XAU on 5-24, a bearish -1.04% on on 5-23, and, was a combined bullish +1.20% the prior two sessions. The XAU has a downside gap at 135.54 from 5-25 that may get filled in the next few sessions and has a downside gap at 130.03 from 3-24 that shouldn't get filled until Wave C. NEM has a downside gap at 49.53 from 5-25 that may get filled in the next few sessions. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/