Trade the Cycles

Sunday, April 30, 2006

....................Weekly Update's Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05, the monthly upcycle since 3-10-06 that appears to have peaked on 4-19 for HUI/XAU, and show the monthly upcycle's Wave 5 short term cycle highs that occurred on Wednesday 4-19 for HUI/XAU, and, may have occurred on 4-28 for NEM in rollover mode. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts.

My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you

................Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

Saturday, April 29, 2006

Let's Hope For A "Nice Clean" Monthly Downcycle

and hope that I didn't just jinx it. The Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle from 1-31-06 until 3-10-06 bottomed shortly/maybe an hour or less after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22, which was the last of NEM/XAU's recently created downside gaps. So, if NEM fills it's last recently created downside gap at 49.24 and the XAU fills it's last recently created downside gap at 130.03 it should be a great time to pile in if the indicators/COT data/I Watch, etc. are reasonably bullish. I'll probably pile in if that happens. The NEM Lead Indicator should turn very bullish vs the XAU near the bottom, and, watch those gaps like a hawk. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) probably peaked on Wednesday 4-19, but NEM put in a modestly higher cycle high on Friday 4-28, so HUI/XAU may do so as well. The latest COT data (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm) is bullish/portends strength in gold next week, but, most of the strength probably occurred this week, since the data is 3 days old when released on Friday and a spike move occurred this week. See 5 day HUI chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Friday, April 28, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.10% Vs The XAU Today

So, a sharp decline in HUI/NEM/XAU is likely on Monday. Fed Credit fell -$3.555 Billion in the WE 4-26 which portends a sharp decline: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ See 5 day chart for this week's action: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= . ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Yesterday's Very Bullish +1.16% Vs The XAU NEM Lead Indicator

Correctly portended substantial strength today. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.75% vs the XAU right now. ......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM Just Took Out It's 4-19 Cycle High At 58.72

With a cycle high so far today at 58.89, which complicates things some, but hopefully HUI/XAU's April 19 likely monthly cycle highs hold. Cycle highs in rollover mode are relatively common, so it isn't too surprising that NEM took out it's 4-19 cycle high. There's a lot of NEM sell interest again today: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=0&mgp=0&i=2&hdate=&x=9&y=1 So, HUI/XAU are , assuming their 4-19 cycle highs hold, in Wave A down of a monthly downcycle since 4-19. ......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

....................Monthly Downcycle Wave A Or C?

Garry's scenario is that HUI/NEM/XAU are in Wave C now while mine is that this is Wave A still. It's unclear but after more thought I suspect that this will be a substantial lengthy 3 weekish correction and that Wave A is/may still be in progress, but time will tell. The XAU Put/Call Ratio and XAU Implied Volatility both portend weakness/a downtrend to be the primary trend/tone today. The early gold/silver stock spike is to suck in more dumb money and it's the monthly downcycle beginning relatively flat, then the downside gaps at 56.72 (NEM) and 152.05 (XAU) will probably get filled today or Monday.

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI.

A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.5236578 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 38.145 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.

The XAU has downside gaps at 152.05 from 4-28, at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.72 from 4-28, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gap at 159.93 for the XAU is a breakaway gap that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle. NEM filled 58.43 from 4-20 yesterday, so it wasn't a breakaway gap.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.20% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +1.16% vs the XAU on 4-27, was a bullish +0.41% vs the XAU on 4-26, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday 4-17.

The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).

There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for a few weeks: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, April 27, 2006

The Short Term Upcycle Since Last Thursday 4-20's 5-7% Mini Crash

Peaked yesterday and appears to have been the monthly downcycle's Wave B short term upcycle, so Garry appears to have been correct that Thursday 4-20's 5-7% mini crash was a one day Wave A short term downcycle, which means that HUI/NEM/XAU probably entered the parabolic/sharply declining Wave C today and it's time to buckle up.
See
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= . The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.16% today vs the XAU, so a sharp rebound at some point tomorrow is likely. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

........................Early Gap Filling Action

The XAU filled it's downside gap at 154.98 from 4-26 and NEM/XAU then filled their upside gaps created at today's open. You can thank PatJ for comments being turned off today. She posted the same stupid inaccurate comment ten times or more and continued to after I answered it. Very few people %wise should be trading short term cycles anyway.

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI.

A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.58579 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 37.830 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.

The XAU has downside gaps at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.90 from 4-26, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gap at 159.93 for the XAU is a breakaway gap that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle. NEM filled 58.43 from 4-20 today, so it wasn't a breakaway gap.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.20% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.41% vs the XAU on 4-26, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday 4-17.

The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).

There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

The Short Term Upcycle Since Last Thursday's 5-7% Mini Crash

Is rolling over flattening out, see
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= , so, it may have peaked today. The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.41% today vs the XAU today, but narrowed toward session's end, which points to weakness early tomorrow. This is/should be the monthly downcycle (since 4-19) for HUI/NEM/XAU beginning relatively flat. The gold/silver stock market is sucking in the dumb money and should shortly (next few weeks) crush them. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

..............Another Probably Brief Sucker's Spike

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI. The rally since last Thursday's 5-7% mini crash is trying to suck in the dumb money and is probably doing a good job of it.

HUI/NEM/XAU are probably going to have a typical nasty multi week 10-15%+ spring correction based on the strong NEM sell interest in recent weeks and the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator (read on), which began after 4-19's monthly cycle high.

A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.56455 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 38.305 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.

The XAU has downside gaps at 154.98 from 4-26, at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.90 from 4-26, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.75% vs the XAU right now, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday.

The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).

There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.32% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU yesterday. So, there should be weakness tomorrow, which makes sense since this is the Wave A short term downcycle of the monthly cycle. HUI, NEM, and the XAU appeared to be in a Wave C down at session's end, which points to weakness at Wednesday's open (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau). The Fed spiked the punch as they always do on Thursday, but not as much as they normally do, and Friday's, Monday's & today's were relatively modest, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...............................Some Thoughts

After the brief spike today HUI/NEM/XAU did a Wave A down followed by a B up and are in C down now, in which they should fill the downside gaps created at today's open: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau Today's spike was the last gasp of the rebound following last Thursday's 5-7% mini crash, and, it's the monthly downcycle beginning relatively flat.

There's big time NEM sell interest today and there's been a lot of sell interest the past two weeks:
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=0&mgp=0&i=2&hdate=&x=10&y=7

This should still be the monthly downcycle's Wave A down.

A Very Brief Sucker's Spike Followed By A Plunge

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI.

A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.61828 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 39.355 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.

The XAU has downside gaps at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Today's downside gaps will probably get filled today so I won't list them right now. Thursday 4-20's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.05% vs the XAU right now, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday.

The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).

There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monday, April 24, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.59% Vs The XAU Today

So, there should be more weakness tomorrow, which makes sense since this is the Wave A short term downcycle of the monthly cycle. HUI and the XAU's sharp rebound today (preceded by a Wave C down) had Elliot Wave 12345 patterns that were followed by an A down and a B up, but were in C down at session's end, which points to weakness at Tuesday's open (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau). The Fed spiked the punch as they always do on Thursday, but not as much as they normally do, and Friday's & today's were relatively modest, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

An Intraday Wave C Occurred Early On Today

Now HUI/NEM/HUI are doing an anemic EW 12345 intraday upcycle: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=

A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI. A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.67393 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 38.600 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.

The XAU has downside gaps at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.35% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday. The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator). There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, April 23, 2006

....................Weekly Update's Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05, the monthly upcycle since 3-10-06 that appears to have peaked on 4-19, and show the monthly upcycle's Wave 5 short term cycle highs last week that occurred on Wednesday 4-19 for HUI/NEM/XAU. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts.

My home page is
http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you

................Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI, NEM, and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) probably peaked on Wednesday 4-19. The latest COT data (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm) is bearish and portends weakness in gold this week. See 5 day HUI chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Friday, April 21, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bullish +0.40% Vs The XAU Today

So, there should be some strength on Monday. HUI, NEM, and the XAU's very sharp rebound today had Elliot Wave 12345 patterns that were followed by an A down, and, they were in a B up at session's end, which points to strength at Monday's open (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau). The Fed spiked the punch as they always do on Thursday, but not as much as they normally do, and today's was a modest $3 Billion Repo, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

.......A Monthly Cycle High Occurred On Wednesday

Near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI. Thursday's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle.

A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.65799 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 39.120 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.

The XAU has downside gaps at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.10% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and some this week. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday. 10-15% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, April 20, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Very Bullish +0.96% Vs The XAU Today

So, there should be a very sharp rebound (probably early) tomorrow. HUI, NEM, and the XAU's 5-7% mini-crash today had Elliot Wave ABC patterns (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau), which also points to early strength tomorrow, and, the Fed spiked the punch as they always do on Thursday, but not as much as they normally do, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

.......A Monthly Cycle High Occurred Yesterday

Near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI. Today's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle.

A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is at a very high fear level = 1.35379 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 36.355 yesterday, which is also a very high level of fear.

The XAU has downside gaps at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.30% vs the XAU right now, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU yesterday, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and some this week. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 yesterday. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. 10-12% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU over the next week or two appear to have begun today. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.70% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU yesterday, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday. A Monthly Cycle High may have occurred today for HUI/NEM/XAU or is probably imminent. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and this week. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU is at an overbought extreme near 0. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. 10-12% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU over the next week or two appear likely. The XAU Put/Call Ratio at a very high fear level of 1.25213 today and XAU Implied Volatility at a high fear level of 34.460 yesterday indicate that the major upcycle since 5-16-05 probably is in Wave 5 since 3-10-06, and, as the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.48% Vs The XAU Today

After being a very bullish +1.76% yesterday vs the XAU. A Monthly Cycle High may have occurred today for HUI/NEM/XAU or is probably imminent. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and some this week. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU is at an overbought extreme near 0. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. 10-12% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU over the next week or two appear likely. The XAU Put/Call Ratio at a high fear level of 1.10470 today and XAU Implied Volatility at a high fear level of 34.900 yesterday indicate that the major upcycle since 5-16-05 probably is in Wave 5 since 3-10-06, and, as the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Yes, A Monthly Cycle High Appears Imminent

For HUI/NEM/XAU and probably gold. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and yesterday. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU is at an overbought extreme near 0. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. 10-12% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU over the next week or two appear likely. The XAU Put/Call Ratio at a high fear level of 1.10470 today and XAU Implied Volatility at a high fear level of 34.900 yesterday indicate that the major upcycle since 5-16-05 probably is in Wave 5 since 3-10-06, and, as the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monday, April 17, 2006

............A Monthly Cycle High Appears Imminent

For HUI/NEM/XAU and probably gold. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and today. There was a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch the past week+: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU is at an overbought extreme near 0. But, the NEM Lead Indicator at +1.76% today points to more upside in HUI/XAU tomorrow, maybe after early weakness. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle Began Last Wednesday

for HUI/NEM/XAU, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau , NEM sell interest is strong again (see link below) today, but the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish so far today at +0.80% vs the XAU, and, NEM and the XAU have what appear to be breakaway gaps to the upside today. It seems risky to be long short term given the strong sell interest in NEM for over a week. I need to do more analysis. Ciao
http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=0&mgp=0&i=2&hdate=&x=7&y=8 ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, April 16, 2006

..............................New Charts Uploaded

Happy Easter to all fellow Christians. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle since Thursday 4-6. Given HUI/XAU's big Wave 3/spike move a substantial decline in the Wave 4 short term downcycle is likely. The latest COT data (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm) is mixed and probably portends (I just saw the data so I could change my assessment) weakness this weak, with the (some) strength it portends probably occurring last week, because the data is 3 days old when released. See 5 day HUI chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, April 13, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.63% Vs The XAU Today

The Wave 4 short term downcycle began on 4-6 for HUI/NEM/XAU. There was a lot of NEM sell interest again today: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=12&y=8 A substantial decline is likely in Wave 4 to correct HUI/XAU's big Wave 3 short term upcycle that peaked Thursday 4-6. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.63% vs the XAU today, was a bullish +0.48% vs the XAU on 4-12, was a bearish -0.26% vs the XAU on 4-11, was a bullish +0.69% on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.35% to 34.305 on Wednesday 4-12 from 34.425 on Tuesday 4-11 versus a +2.42% rise in the XAU on 4-12, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.07% rise in fear (-0.35% + +2.42% = +2.07%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.07%, therefore fear rose by +2.07%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 4-12's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +7.62% today to 1.10287 from 1.02474 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual today/Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bullish +0.48% Vs The XAU Today

The Wave 4 short term downcycle began on 4-6 for HUI/NEM/XAU. NEM filled it's upside gap at 54.05 from Friday during Monday's session, while the XAU didn't, which confirms that it's a breakaway gap. There was a lot of NEM sell interest again today: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=12&y=8 A substantial decline is likely in Wave 4 to correct HUI/XAU's big Wave 3 short term upcycle that peaked last Thursday 4-6. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.48% vs the XAU on 4-12, was a bearish -0.26% vs the XAU on 4-11, was a bullish +0.69% on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.83% to 34.425 on Tuesday 4-11 from 35.065 on Monday 4-10 versus a -2.46% decline in the XAU on 4-11, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.29% rise in complacency (-1.83% + -2.46% = -4.29%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.29%, therefore complacency rose by +4.29%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 4-12's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (o.50-1.99%) -1.77% today to 1.02474 from 1.04317 on Tuesday that portends some weakness today, because it's a significant rise in complacency. The Fed spiked the punch as usual last Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.26% Vs The XAU Today

Was +0.69% vs the XAU on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. HUI/NEM/XAU are in the Wave 4 short term downcycle since last Thursday. A very sharp decline has begun which will correct the big Wave 3 short term upcycle. There's been a lot of NEM sell interest at Lycos Thomson I Watch the past week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=13&y=5 Also, the Gold Commercial Traders were aggressive short sellers last week and sold a significant % of their long position, which points to substantial weakness this week. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX Weakness Is Likely To Bring A Sharp Decline Today

The Wave 4 short term downcycle began on 4-6 for HUI/NEM/XAU. NEM filled it's upside gap at 54.05 from Friday during yesterday's session, while the XAU didn't, which confirms that it's a breakaway gap. Based on S & P 500 (SPX) weakness right now it appears that gold stocks will fall sharply soon due to index fund selling. On an intraday and very short term cycle basis SPX tends to have a huge impact on HUI/NEM (SPX component)/XAU. A substantial decline is likely in Wave 4 to correct HUI/XAU's big Wave 3 short term upcycle that peaked last Thursday. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.45% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.69% on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 144.91 from 4-11, at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +2.60% to 35.065 on Monday 4-10 from 34.175 on Friday 4-7 versus a -0.38% decline in the XAU on 4-10, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.22% rise in fear (+2.60% + -0.38% = +2.22%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.22%, therefore fear rose by +2.22%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 4-11's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (o.50-1.99%) -1.23% today to 1.04317 from 1.05616 on Monday that portends some weakness today, because it's a significant rise in complacency. The Fed spiked the punch as usual last Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monday, April 10, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.69% Vs The XAU Today

was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. HUI/NEM/XAU are in the Wave 4 short term downcycle since Thursday. A very sharp decline has probably begun which will correct the big Wave 3. There's been a lot of NEM sell interest at Lycos Thomson I Watch the past few days: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=13&y=5 Also, the Gold Commercial Traders were aggressive shorters last week and sold a significant % of their long position, which points to substantial weakness this week. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Today's Early Strength Was NEM Gap Filling Action

and the Wave 4 short term downcycle since 4-6 beginning relatively flat. NEM filled it's upside gap at 54.05 from Friday, while the XAU didn't, which confirms that it's a breakaway gap. A substantial decline is likely in Wave 4 to correct HUI/XAU's big Wave 3 short term upcycle. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +1.40% vs the XAU right now, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.70% to 34.175 on Friday 4-7 from 33.605 on 4-6 versus a -2.50% decline in the XAU on 4-7, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.80% rise in complacency (+1.70% + -2.50% = -0.80%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.80%, therefore complacency rose by +0.80%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 4-10's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +10.98% today to 1.05616 from 0.95164 on Friday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, April 09, 2006

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05, the monthly upcycle since 3-10-06, and show the monthly upcycle's Wave 3 short term cycle highs last week that occurred on Thursday for HUI/NEM/XAU. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you

................Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

Saturday, April 08, 2006

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle since Thursday. I now believe that NEM is also in Wave 4 versus Wave 5 up. NEM filled it's downside gap last week then shot back up to finish it's Wave 3 short term upcycle. The very sharp drop during the gap filling action made it look like Wave 4 down, but it was probably still Wave 3 up, and, it appears that way on the latest 1 year NEM chart dated 4-7-06. The latest COT data is very bearish. The gold Commercial Traders sold 2200 long futures and options contracts and added a large 20,657 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). Given HUI/XAU's big Wave 3/spike move and bearish COT data, a substantial decline in the Wave 4 short term downcycle is likely. See 5 day HUI chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Friday, April 07, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.08% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.03% vs the XAU yesterday, was a bullish +0.80% vs the XAU on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% vs the XAU on 3-31. HUI/XAU are in the Wave 4 short term downcycle since yesterday's wave 3 cycle high, and, NEM is in the Wave 5 short term upcycle. A very sharp decline has probably begun which will correct the big Wave 3.

There's been a lot of NEM sell interest at Lycos Thomson I Watch the past few days: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=13&y=5 Also, the Gold Commercial Traders were aggressive shorters last week and sold a significant % of their long position, which points to substantial weakness next week. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

...........Big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle Peaked

The Monthly Upcycle's big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle appears to have finally peaked yesterday for HUI/XAU, but, peaked Thursday 3-30 for NEM, which is in Wave 5 up. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The XAU and possibly also NEM have what appear to be breakaway gaps (gapped down so they're upside gaps) today that probably won't get filled in the next few days. I don't rule out the possibility that the monthly upcycle since 3-10-06 has peaked, but HUI and the XAU appear to have just finished a big Wave 3 short term upcycle, so, Wave 5 should still lie ahead. Today's COT data release may shed some light. Given the Big Wave 3 a substantial downcycle is likely even if a monthly upcycle remains in effect.

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.10% vs the XAU right now, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon. A couple of downside gaps were filled today.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.77% to 33.605 on Thursday 4-6 from 34.210 on Wednesday 4-5 versus a +1.57% rise in the XAU on 4-6, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) +0.20% rise in complacency (-1.77% + +1.57% = -0.20%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.20%, therefore complacency rose by +0.20%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 4-7's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +6.19% today to 0.95164 from 0.89615 on Thursday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Thursday, April 06, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.03% Vs The XAU Today

Was a bullish +0.80% vs the XAU yesterday, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% vs the XAU on 3-31. HUI/XAU's Wave 3 short term upcycle is still peaking and NEM has entered the Wave 5 short term upcycle. I expect a very sharp decline soon. There's been a lot of sell interest at Lycos Thomson I Watch the past few days: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=13&y=5

Also, the Gold Commercial Traders were aggressive sellers last week and added significantly to their short position, which points to weakness soon. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Monthly Upcycle's Big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle

The Monthly Upcycle's big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle made higher cycle highs today for HUI/XAU and may have finally peaked, but, peaked last Thursday 3-30 for NEM, which is in Wave 5 up. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.10% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 146.89 from 4-6, at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 53.23 from 4-6, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.67% to 34.210 on Wednesday 4-5 from 34.440 on Tuesday 4-4 versus a +2.06% rise in the XAU on 4-5, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.39% rise in fear (-0.67% + +2.06% = +1.39%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +1.39%, therefore fear rose by +1.39%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 4-6's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -3.49% today to 0.89615 from 0.92853 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today, because it's a very sharp rise in complacency. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.80% Vs The XAU Today

After being a bullish +0.39% yesterday, a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% vs the XAU on 3-31. HUI/NEM/XAU benefitted today from a higher gold price target by Credit Suisse First Boston. HUI/XAU's Wave 3 short term upcycle is still peaking and NEM has entered the Wave 5 short term upcycle OR the monthly upcycle is peaking for HUI/XAU and NEM's has peaked and I missed Wave 5. I believe that a big Wave 3 short term upcycle is peaking for HUI/XAU, but I need to spend more time looking at their charts and NEM's. Either way I expect a very sharp decline soon. There's been a lot of sell interest at Lycos Thomson I watch the past few days:

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=13&y=5

Also, the Gold Commercial Traders were aggressive sellers last week and added significantly to their short position, which points to weakness soon.

See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Monthly Upcycle's Big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle

The Monthly Upcycle's big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle made slightly higher cycle highs today for HUI/XAU but peaked last Thursday for NEM. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.85% to 34.440 on Tuesday 4-4 from 34.735 on Monday 4-3 versus a +0.82% rise in the XAU on 4-4, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) -0.03% rise in complacency (-0.85% + +0.82% = -0.03%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.03%, therefore complacency rose by +0.03%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 4-5's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +3.02% today to 0.92853 from 0.90131 on Tuesday that portends some strength today, because it's a very sharp rise in fear. The Fed didn't spike the punch recently, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is probably in effect or soon will be: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.39% Vs The XAU Today

After being a very bearish -2.26% yesterday and a bearish -0.87% vs the XAU on Friday. The NEM Lead Indicator is obviously very bearish right now. The Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle began yesterday for HUI/XAU (see 5 day chart below) and last Thursday for NEM. In the Wave 4 short term downcycle NEM and the XAU will fill some of their recently created downside gaps (NEM filled 51.49 yesterday): The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40, and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

The Monthly Upcycle's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle

The Monthly Upcycle's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle began early last Thursday for NEM and yesterday for HUI/XAU. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.50% vs the XAU right now, was a very bearish -2.26% yesterday, and a bearish -0.87% on Friday. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts:
http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +2.74% to 34.735 on Monday 4-3 from 33.810 on Friday 3-31 versus a +0.79% rise in the XAU on 4-3, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +3.53% rise in fear (+2.74% + +0.79% = +3.53%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +3.53%, therefore fear rose by +3.53%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 4-4's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a sharp (2-2.99%) -2.20% today to 0.90131 from 0.92156 on Monday that portends some weakness today because it's a sharp rise in complacency. The Fed didn't spike the punch recently (though yesterday was a large $9 Billion 1 day Repo), which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monday, April 03, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = -2.26% Vs The XAU Today

After being -0.87% vs the XAU on Friday. The NEM Lead Indicator is obviously very bearish right now. The Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle began today for HUI/XAU (see 5 day chart below) and last Thursday for NEM. In the Wave 4 short term downcycle NEM and the XAU will fill some of their recently created downside gaps (NEM filled 51.49 today): The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40, and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon. The XAU filled it's upside gap at 143.19 from Friday today. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

HUI/XAU Wave 3 Peaking Today, NEM Last Thursday

A last gasp by the Wave 3 short term upcycle, with help from the Fed's $9 Billion 1 day Repo (SPX strength), caused HUI and the XAU to put in higher cycle highs today, though the XAU is stuck at 144.50 (?) and I'm assuming it put in a higher cycle high today. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. NEM is in the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle since early Thursday. See 5 day HUI chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Monthly Upcycle's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle

The XAU filled it's upside gap at 143.19 from Friday early today. The Monthly Upcycle's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle
began early Thursday. See
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.

The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -1.00% vs the XAU right now, and was a bearish -0.87% on Friday. The XAU has downside gaps at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.49 from 3-30's open, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.47% to 33.810 on Friday 3-31 from 33.320 on 3-30 versus a -1.10% decline in the XAU on 3-31, which is a modest (0.25-0.49%) +0.37% rise in fear (+1.47% + -1.10% = +0.37%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +0.37%, therefore fear rose by +0.37%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Monday 4-3's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +9.56% today to 0.92156 from 0.84112 on Friday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed didn't spike the punch recently though today was a large $9 Billion 1 day Repo, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

Sunday, April 02, 2006

................................Weekly Update Ready

At http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See 1 year charts that show the likely Elliot Wave points for the major upcycle since 5-16-05, the monthly upcycle since 3-10-06, and show the monthly upcycle's Wave 3 short term cycle highs last week that occurred early on Thursday for HUI/NEM/XAU. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.

...............Disclaimer

Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered investment advisor. Investing in stocks involves risk. Joe Ferrazzano is not a registered broker or dealer. Each investor has to ascertain what percentage if any of one's investments should be allocated to growth stocks or gold/silver stocks. Please see a financial planner, registered investment advisor or at least do your homework and decide what is right for your situation. Growth stocks and gold/silver stocks tend to be extremely volatile which creates opportunities but also can be very painful and risky. Each investor must take complete responsibility for his or her investing actions. Joe Ferrazzano should be considered as one source of information out of many from which to derive a decision on investing.

Saturday, April 01, 2006

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle since early Thursday. See 5 day HUI chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/